Will Orel Hershiser ever be a Hall of Famer?

[sjm76]

Career highlights and awards

3× All-Star (1987–1989) World Series champion (1988) NL Cy Young Award (1988) World Series MVP (1988) 2× LCS MVP (1988, 1995) Gold Glove Award (1988) Silver Slugger Award (1993) NL wins leader (1988) MLB record 59 consecutive scoreless innings pitched He obviously had a pretty impressive career especially the 59 consecutive scoreless innings streak but seemed to tail off over the last half of his career. He also pitched very well when the Dodgers were in the postseason and had 204 wins. I believe he is next eligible in 2022 with the Veteran's committee. Do you think he ever gets in?

 

[Letch77]

Probably...the "today's game" committee meets twice every five years and sooner or later they're going to run low on viable candidates that are ahead of the steroid users.

 

[tpeichel]

I’m going to say, yes. Hershiser seems pretty similar to Jack Morris.

 

[joey12508]

i rather see Vida Blue get in.

 

[WizardofOz1982]

Jack Morris shouldn't have gotten in and Hershiser is quite a bit worse than Morris so I'd say no. That means he'll likely get in the first time he's eligible on a Veteran's Committee ballot.

 

[tpeichel]

Jack Morris shouldn't have gotten in and Hershiser is quite a bit worse than Morris so I'd say no. That means he'll likely get in the first time he's eligible on a Veteran's Committee ballot.

How is Hershiser quite a bit worse? To be honest I didn’t do a deep dive, but Hershiser has a better ERA, 3.48, and a much better WAR, plus the Cy Young, which I thought balanced out the pluses that Morris has.

Morris was great in the postseason, but so was Hershiser going 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA.

 

[bstanwood]

I feel like the bulldog didn't have a long enough peak, he played for awhile and was good for most of it but he was elite for a shorter time than I'd like to see from that elite level. I think his coaching will play an impact, from what I can see he is a very solid pitching coach and if he were ever to manage successfully I think that would do it.

 

[banjar]

Hershiser had an amazing peak, up there with the all-timers. But it just didn't last long enough. First ballot hall of very good, but I just don't see him squeaking into the HOF. But with the veterans committee, who knows.

 

[gt2590]

No.

Like Johan Santana, Barry Zito, Mike Scott, Dwight Golden, guys like that who had tremendous coupla seasons but not enough overall success. Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto are recent similar examples...

 

[WizardofOz1982]

How is Hershiser quite a bit worse? To be honest I didn’t do a deep dive, but Hershiser has a better ERA, 3.48, and a much better WAR, plus the Cy Young, which I thought balanced out the pluses that Morris has.

Morris was great in the postseason, but so was Hershiser going 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA.

They're closer by FIP than ERA (3.69 to 3.94). Morris has 55.8 career fWAR compared to Hershiser's 48.0 though a lot of that is innings difference.

Quite a bit worse was too strong after looking again but Morris had a higher peak as well as a more extended one. Hershiser had 6 good to great years and the rest were league average or so in 17 seasons. Morris had 10 good to great years and the rest were league average or better.

I look at awards well down the list of qualifications. Then i take a look at the season and see if the award was really deserved or not. Hershiser wasn't the best pitcher on the Dodgers in 1988 much less the National League. Gooden or Cone (my vote would have been Cone) should have walked away with the 1988 Cy Young easily but didn't. Cone finished 3rd and Gooden didn't get a single vote. The 15 shutouts likely won it for Hershiser and I can see why but he wasn't the most valuable pitcher that season. Usually it is a player on a winning team, etc. but even that doesn't hold water. The Mets were the best team in baseball in 1988.

They really aren't that dissimilar I guess, at least on an individual talent level basis. Hershiser just didn't sustain his peak long enough. Starting at 25, rather than 22 like Morris, didn't help I'm sure.

 

[tpeichel]

They're closer by FIP than ERA (3.69 to 3.94). Morris has 55.8 career fWAR compared to Hershiser's 48.0 though a lot of that is innings difference.

Quite a bit worse was too strong after looking again but Morris had a higher peak as well as a more extended one. Hershiser had 6 good to great years and the rest were league average or so in 17 seasons. Morris had 10 good to great years and the rest were league average or better.

I look at awards well down the list of qualifications. Then i take a look at the season and see if the award was really deserved or not. Hershiser wasn't the best pitcher on the Dodgers in 1988 much less the National League. Gooden or Cone (my vote would have been Cone) should have walked away with the 1988 Cy Young easily but didn't. Cone finished 3rd and Gooden didn't get a single vote. The 15 shutouts likely won it for Hershiser and I can see why but he wasn't the most valuable pitcher that season. Usually it is a player on a winning team, etc. but even that doesn't hold water. The Mets were the best team in baseball in 1988.

They really aren't that dissimilar I guess, at least on an individual talent level basis. Hershiser just didn't sustain his peak long enough. Starting at 25, rather than 22 like Morris, didn't help I'm sure.

Good deep dive on the analysis.

The voters that felt good about putting in Jack Morris will likely have similar good feelings about Hershiser, though maybe that Game 7 in 1991 was really memorable for the voters and that will be the difference.

 

[WizardofOz1982]

Good deep dive on the analysis.

The voters that felt good about putting in Jack Morris will likely have similar good feelings about Hershiser, though maybe that Game 7 in 1991 was really memorable for the voters and that will be the difference.

Morris also had the Winningest pitcher of the 80s thing going for him. I'm not sure that Hershiser has the kind of narrative to support him getting in like that. Maybe the 59 inning shutout streak gets him there along with the Cy Young and the Postseason awards. He wouldn't be the worst pitcher in the Hall by quite a bit.