Tag Archives: Xander Bogaerts

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FCB Prospect Hot List, Issue #1

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Greetings, fellow prospectors.

Every other week, I will be releasing my list of baseball prospects who are either receiving a significant amount of hype, have had excellent performances recently, or both.

Recently, I created a “prototype” version of a Hot List, which you can find here. Afterwards, FCB owner Chris Gilmore asked if I could make this a bi-weekly column to supplement the FCB weekly Hot List. Unlike that list, this will cover baseball prospects exclusively.

It’s already a busy time of year where prospects are concerned, and Spring Training hasn’t even started yet.

Bottom line – the anticipation and hype are what’s fueling prices right now. In addition, the college baseball season began this past weekend, for those who prospect amateur players. And finally, there’s Baseball America’s annual Top 100 prospects list, which fans the flame even higher where prospect card values are concerned.

As a bonus, I will also include a “sleeper” on each list, i.e., a prospect whose card values have yet to reach their potential, but have the possibility to do so.

1) Oscar Taveras. There really is no serious competition right now for the top spot. The Cards’ GM compared Taveras’ hitting skills to that of Albert Pujols recently, and people are pouncing all over his cards. His base autographed Bowman Chromes are now fetching as much as $147 each, and his Refractor autos are getting up to $275.

2) Dylan Bundy. If Taveras is the top hitting prospect where card values are concerned, Bundy is the top pitcher. People are speculating as to whether or not this ace-in-waiting could break camp with the O’s, and his cards are steadily increasing. A base Chrome auto just sold for triple digits.

3) Xander Bogaerts. Being a great hitting prospect is a good thing. Being a power hitter helps his stock even more. And playing for the Red Sox’s organization just blows up his cards even further. A base Chrome just brought in $100, and a Blue Refractor auto brought over $250 recently, up from $175.

4) Jurickson Profar. While it’s looking increasingly likely he’ll start the year in AAA, the fact he topped Keith Law’s, Jonathan Mayo’s and Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects lists means his cards won’t be slowing down anytime soon. A Refractor auto sold for $190 recently.

5) Zack Wheeler. The top pitching prospect in the Mets’ system by far, like Bundy his cards are also steadily increasing, as a base Chrome auto sold for $70.

6) Christian Yelich. Another product of the recently released Top 100 lists, his hitting ability is finally being recognized where values are concerned. A lot of two of his base Chrome autos sold for $85 recently.

7) Gerrit Cole. He has arguably the top velocity in the minors, and isn’t far from Pittsburgh. People are already anticipating him becoming the ace they’ve sorely needed, as a Blue Refractor auto sold for $150 recently, up from the $105-125 range.

8) Austin Meadows. It’s never too early to speculate on potential 5-tool prospects, and he fits the bill. Many still don’t realize his base Chrome USA autos are in shorter supply than his Refractor autos, which are numbered to 199. One just sold for $90, and if the hype continues, they won’t be under $100 for long. In addition, a Purple Refractor auto sold for over $730.

My Weekly Sleeper – Shelby Miller. No, he’s obviously not a sleeper as a prospect, but the fact that Chris Carpenter won’t be pitching again anytime soon opens the door for him to win a rotation spot. You can still find his base Chrome autos in the $20-$25 range (as of now). Get ‘em while you can.

FCB Weekly Hot List August 10th 2012

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I just happened to listen to a U2 song and it reminded me of another U2 song (there are hundreds after all) the title of the song is “Even Better Than the Real Thing.”  I’m not sure if it is what Bono had in mind but if you were asked the question “What is even better than the real thing?”  I think you could probably answer “expectations.”  There are likely entire psychological theses done on the effect that anticipation and expectation has on people’s minds but for now lets just confine it to sports, you didn’t come here for Psych 101 did you?

Expectation certainly plays a huge part in the sports card market in which we live.  Whether it’s the expectation of a big rookie  season, a  break out season, induction into the Hall of Fame, a certain product becoming epic, or a host of other things expectation means that cash registers are ringing.

Now here’s the strange thing, expectation is kind of like golf is often described, “you are going to be frustrated almost the entirety of the game that you play but you’ll hit a couple shots that will make you come back again in hopes of more of that.”  This absolutely applies for sports, whether it’s baseball, football, hockey, basketball there are a huge chunk of players that sell for peak prices right at release and never see those prices again, primarily because the performance never materialized.  However, there are also a group of athletes that perform really well and still don’t see those initial release prices, the Olympics reminded us of that.

What do I mean by the Olympics reminded us of that?  Well first, lets back up and note the fact that due to Topps great 2012 USA Olympics release we now have something to collect around the games.  So naturally in my Hot List research I looked up “Allyson Felix” the 200m USA womens runner who had just broke through with her first gold.  Her autos, after receiving the gold medal she so desired, were down from last week.  I guess she didn’t set a world record – sometimes the anticipation exceeds the actual elation when the result is achieved.

Of course, with the NFL season coming upon us, two names that come to mind in this regard are Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, their cards are already selling for more than most established stars and they have yet to throw a pass or heck, even walk onto the field in a regular season game.  There have not been two more hyped prospects since Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf (can we think of two more divergent stories?) and it will be interesting to see how it pans out but I can tell you this, unless these two are perennial All-Pros, the prices you see now are going to be the highest ever.

Speaking of high prices…

 

1. John Skelton 2010 Topps Chrome Auto

Skelton

Comments: I have my fantasy football draft this weekend so I have been reading a fair amount of material leading into that and one of the names I came across in the “avoid” list was Felix Jones with the caption after “Fool me once shame on you, fool me every year….”  If you know the saying it’s fool me twice shame on me…and as a Felix Jones owner when you’ve been fooled 4 times, well I don’t know what to tell you.  This matters to this spot the list because Kevin Kolb is entering the fool me twice zone and there’s a pretty good case to be made for John Skelton as the starting QB of the Cardinals.  One of the main reasons is durability and so when K^2 got a minor injury early in the pre-season collectors flocked to John Skelton’s rookie autos as evidenced by Chromes moving from $10 to over $20.


2. William Abreu 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft USA Autos

Abreu

Comments: Even though it’s been some time since Topps printed USA autos and will be some time (the musical chairs of contracts is now in Panini’s lap) I bet you could still make a S’more off of the heat of the presses from Topps cranking so many USA autos out.  That said, this year’s draft brought some movement to some of the USA autos, so collectors are more keenly watching USA Autos for potential great prospects.  William Abreu who graduated H.S. in 2013 had autos that moved from $10 to over $20 this week for the refractor version.

3. Daniel Vogelbach 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Vogel

Comments: When you compare the picture on the front of the card, it’s hard for Dan Vogelbach to stack up to the rest of the 2011 draft class.  It’s just not the most flattering picture and in an era when collectors thirst for 5 tool players the chubby first basemen doesn’t attract a lot of attention.  But that reminds me of the lady who called out John Kruk on smoking while shagging balls in the outfield, fan:  you shouldn’t be smoking, you’re an athlete  Kruk: lady, I’m a baseball player.  Everything you read on Vogelbach is that appearances deceive, he has mammoth power and better than expected agility and thus far he’s proving it in his debut.  Home Runs keep getting hit and Vogelbach’s Autos have moved from $10 to $20.

4. Dorial Green-Beckham 2012 Leaf Army Autos

DGB

Comments: Nicknames get developed as stars as established.  So the fact that DGB has a moniker before playing one college snap is notable.  The guy stands out no matter how you slice it and if he puts up huge numbers in the SEC this year playing against the best college has to offer, the sky is the limit for these Leaf autos (which come from my favorite product ever by the way).  As practices have begun and his name has begun to be bantered about more in the media, prices are already seeing an increase, Tour Autos as pictured above have nearly doubled.

5. Misty May-Treanor 2012 Topps USA Autos

May

Comments: It’s honestly hard to put into words how good Misty and Kerri are.  I know lots of folks watch for the bikini clad volleyball players but these girls are absolutely fantastic.  Whether it’s speed, power, precision, strategy, knowledge, consistency or anything else, Misty and Kerri are absolutely the best.  One of the comments that Kerri made in the post-match interview was “I wish we could play again because I played terrible.”  Honestly, she didn’t play that great but I don’t think Misty made one miss hit the ENTIRE match, yes you read that right.  Opponents must be breathing a sigh of relief to see her retire.  Olympic Autos bumped up by about 33% as a result of a third straight gold medal.  Sidenote:  Anyone else have an issue with the fact that as far as the medal count goes that counts the same as ping pong?  This guy right here does.

6. Josh Rutledge 2010 Donruss Elite Autos

Rutledge

Comments: Injuries create opportunities and such was the case with Rutledge and Tulos injury.  Not only did Rutledge get the chance to start but he’s embracing it with things like a 4 hit game the other night.  Rutledge’s Elite Autos moved from $10-$15 last week to into the $20-$25 range this week.

7. Aly Raisman 2012 Topps USA Olympic Autos

Raisman

Comments: I like the second week of the Olympics better than the first week because I like track and field a whole lot better than I like gymnastics but that said, watching Aly Raisman’s floor routine was incredible, “wow” the words she mouthed after landing the last tumbling routine is the right kind of description.  Sure you heard plenty about Jordyn Wieber and “Air” Maroney but Aly’s the girl who brought home the individual gold (and bronze for good measures) and her autographs moved up 25% this week in response.

8. Jered Weaver 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Weaver

Comments: Most wins in the MLB, lowest ERA in the MLB and as I pointed out a few weeks ago, this isn’t a one time flash in the pan.  OH and he’s playing in a huge market on a team of players who are receiving a lot of notoriety (this Trout guy, you may have heard of him also plays on the team).  Jered continues to put up stunning stats and that continues to drive up the price of his 2005 Base Chrome Autos, this week to over $60.

9. Xander Bogaerts 2012 Bowman Chrome Autos

Bogaerts

Comments: Xander’s 2012 season was going along rather well in Hi-A and then the Red Sox went and promoted him to AA and what did he do there last night?  Oh, go yard in his first game.  The guy drips with potential and this year has put up the stats to match.  This has cards like Refractor Autos moving from $45 up to over $60

10. Zack Wheeler 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor Autos

Wheeler

Comments: Speaking of guys who are pairing results with potential – that has been the story of Zack Wheeler the last couple years.  If you recall, his first cards showed up alongside Tyler Matzeks, Mike Leakes and some other pitchers in 2009 Draft products.  Of those three, it was Matzek, Wheeler and Leake in that order.  If you bought and sold Leake stuff before he tried to go all 5 fingered discount on a store.  You made great money.  Matzek stuff started hot but has since cooled quite a bit.  Wheeler on the other hand scuffled along for a while but has put it together now.  Mets fans are hoping they have a future ace in their midst and Refractor Auto 9.5s like the one pictured are now over $100.


 

 

 

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – January 6th 2012 Edition

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Since the last Hot List, something very significant has changed, its a New Year! Although I don’t believe that any specific resolutions were made here on the Hot List, nor on FCB in general, there is certainly plenty to be excited about.  I talk to FCB’s owner (cgilmo) fairly frequently and 2012 is going to be a big year for the website.  Most notably, a mobile application that is in development currently – that’s right, you can read these interwebs on an application on your telephone.

A large part of that mobile application will be blog related content, the Hot List at the head of that of course (my own opinion) but hopefully that will be just the beginning – if you feel you are a writer and want to do it for FCB, this is the time to step forward.  Anyway, I digress, on the plenty to look forward to front, in the time from last week to this week, we had the Hot List candidate well go from dry to flooded.  Much of this is related to collectors looking forward to things and in some strange way it is with many names that we’ve seen before.

 

1. Matt Flynn 2008 Rookie Autos

Flynn

Comments: If a year ago, you had to pick a team whose individual players you were going to buy, with the intention of selling their cards later, the Packers would have been the right move.  We all know about Aaron Rodgers but don’t forget about the huge price spikes seen by Jordy Nelson, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson (Panini Autos), Jermichael Finley, James Starks and Matt Flynn (he’s been on this list before), yes that Matt Flynn the guy who backs up Aaron.  See the thing about Matt is although he’s behind a guy who is playing the QB position as well as it has ever been played, when he gets in, he does his best Matt Cassel impression.  What I mean by that is that when the system and pieces around you are so good, it almost seems hard not to succeed.  However, last Sunday, Matt didn’t just succeed, he beat a playoff team, put up nearly 500 yards of passing and threw 6 touchdowns, yes six.  Many of his rookie autos quadrupled after this performance and you have to know that if Aaron Rodgers would go down at some point Packers fans at least believe they have a viable back up option.

2. Joe Webb National Treasures Autos

Webb

Comments: To say the Vikings QB situation over the past few years has been interesting is an understatement.  The Brett Favre drama almost goes without saying but even beyond that – Tavaris Jackson’s ups and downs, the signing of Donovan McNabb who went from solid QB to not even backup worthy  in a couple years, Christian Ponder’s great games and rookie moments and much more.  However, one guy who has taken advantage of the opportunities he’s had is Joe Webb.  Joe made this list last year after running for a couple TDs and here he is again after a good performance last Sunday.  National Treasures autographs went from $8.5 to $30 this week.

3. Kyle Lowry 2006-07 Exquisite Autos

Lowry

Comments: I really liked Kyle when he came out of Villanova, however, he just never seemed to put it together in Memphis, a team that always seemed to have a lot of young talent but never really got results.  There’s also the whole Mike Conley Jr. thing and a lack of understand about who is THE point guard.  However, lack of understanding no more – Kyle is the guy in Houston and had a much better year last year and so far has taken it to another level this year – currently averaging over 15 ppg and 10 apg.  Kyle’s once unloved Exquisite Autos were selling in the $30-$50 range but are now rising – one hit an all-time high this week of $100.

4. Andrew Bynum SPX Auto Rookies /1499

Bynum

Comments: For a guy who is often injured and still hasn’t hit his full potential, Bynum’s name is certainly in the new a lot, usually related to trips to the injured reserve but the fact is, he’s a Laker and that gets you some publicity no matter what.  It’s not like Bynum has been awful, he average 15 and 9 in 2009-2010 and 11 and 10 in 2010-11 but people are expecting Dwight Howard like production from this guy and that’s exactly what they are getting in the 4 games he’s played in 2011-12, a double double in each game and on the average 22 and 16.  If he keeps this pace up, uninjured, the sky is the limit for his rookie autos.  SPXs were selling for $16 a piece and then a lot was purchased at the price of $40 per, that will look cheap if he keeps up the pace.

5. Victor Cruz 2010 Playoff Contenders Auto RC

Cruz

Comments: That’s right, the guy who was likely undrafted in your fantasy draft wound up with 1536 yards of receiving and 9 touchdowns this year.  Everyone expected an enormous year from Hakeem Nicks and he fell into the shadow of Victor Cruz – who had 17 yds receiving total in his first two games and 1519 in his next 14.  Victor’s Contenders autos were at one time SO CHEAP, single digit dollars last year, heck, they were in the $40s last week and after yet another huge game rocketed up into the $70s with one touching $82!

6. Ricky Rubio 2009-10 Exquisite Autos /225

Rubio

Comments: Ricky was drafted and then stayed in Spain, disappointing for those who pulled cards like the one above out of packs of Exquisite.  However, now Ricky is playing for the T-Wolves and if people who snagged those Exquisite Autos were patient enough to hold onto them, they are seeing the fruits now.  Just a week ago these were at $250 and now they are at $450.  Ricky is averaging 9 points a game for the T-Wolves and 7 assists a game but many believe that’s just the start.

7. Chris Ivory 2010 Playoff Contenders Auto

Ivory

Comments: Like Flynn, Webb and Cruz, Chris Ivory has seen this list before but it has certainly been a while.  Chris had a few great games for the Saints last year that gave his 2010 Contenders Autos some attention, in the meantime, he got lost in the mix of Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram and all the other offensive weapons the Saints have.  Then he reappeared recently with a touchdown in the last week of the season, his first of the year.  If you know one thing about the Saints it is that anyone can score TDs for them.  So its certainly possible that Chris’ role (and likely card values) increase headed into the Playoffs, a week ago his Contenders were under $10 bucks and now they can’t be had for under $20.
8. Trevor Bauer High End 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Parallels

Bauer

Comments: I’m not sure if someone is on a hoarding run or not but Trevor’s high-end Draft parallels and other rarer parallels are scorching.  Just a week ago you could get a blue for $150 and one went off last night for $290.  There are many who believe Bauer will be given a shot at the big league rotation in Spring Training this year and if that’s the case, things are only going to get hotter.
9. Xander Bogaerts 2011 Leaf Auto Rookies

Bogaerts

Comments: Xander is the top prospect on a big market baseball team and he only has a couple autos – you know what that is, a recipe for high prices.  Xander’s an international signee who made it into a couple Leaf products this fall and is now making it onto a lot of top prospect list at a premium position.  Often times when a flood of new product comes out, a month or two later you see certain players start to rise as collectors have more time to evaluate the price points and that’s just what is happening to Xander.  With limited releases there is a chance for more upward movement if Xander performs well this year, in the mean time his Valiants went from $8 to more like $15 this week.

10. Bubba Starling 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Starling

Comments: Does anyone remember Jesus Montero in 2008 Bowman Chrome Draft?  Big name prospect who due to redemptions was cheaper than many expected initially, once chrome autos were in hand, prices rose.  Exact same thing happened to Bubba this year, redemptions were $35-$40 and now in hand autos are selling in the mid-$50s.

11. Kevin Love 2008-09 Topps Chrome Parallels

Love

Comments: After an injury ended his year last year, Kevin is back with a vengeance.  6 games, 6 double doubles, averaging 26 points and 15 rpg, I really believe he could keep that up, as insane as that sounds.  The 2008-09 Topps Chrome product has already produced insane prices in the form of Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook but here comes Kevin Love – parallels are up about 50% this week and Orange Refractors which aren’t exactly rare /499 are selling for $50.