Tag Archives: Trevor Bauer

FCB Weekly Hot List – February 17th, 2012

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At this point, it feels really repetitive to talk  more about Jeremy Lin.  It’s like the Tebow story week after week (if not even more extraordinary).  From the Hot List perspective though there is a huge story here.  Last week after we posted the Hot List with Jeremy rightfully at #1 after seeing a 10x increase to $350 per National Treasures Auto /99 there were a number of posters who commented in the thread something to the effect of “you know, I’d buy Lin right now if I had some extra pennies.”  Oh, how right they were.  Lin’s cards skyrocketed even further after we posted our list last week and are now at $2,000 for a National Treasures Patch Auto /99.

Give it just a little consideration, these were routinely under $30 a couple weeks ago.   We may have found our all time spike here, at least since we’ve been writing the Hot List.  I mean, we’ve had some extraordinary pops but honestly, nothing even close to this order.  What I think is notable is that whenever huge spikes like this happen it all has to come together at once – big market, huge games, prior unknown, huge fan base – both hear and abroad and a very inspiring story, yup – got all that and some more too.

So once again, Jeremy tops this week’s list.

 

1. 2010-11 Jeremy Lin Patch Auto RC /99

Lin

Comments: I really just wrote a much longer commentary in the introduction piece of this article so go read that and then consider that Jeremy now sells for significantly more than John Wall who was by far and away the #1 guy when this product released.

2. Gary Carter Pack Pulled Autographs

Carter

Comments: It’s kind of awkward writing about price spikes of guys who have passed.  Once the market realizes no more autos will be signed, prices go up and in the case of guys like Carter, they go up a lot, like 300%.  Still sad.

3. Matt Flynn 2008 Topps Chrome Auto

Flynn

Comments: Since I live in Kansas City, I hear a great deal about Matt Cassell, a guy who got an opportunity, in an awesome system, put up some huge numbers and wound up getting a really nice free agent contract out of it.  Since then, Cassell has struggled to meet expectations and there has been a great deal of speculation about whether it was him producing in New England or just the system he was in – one has to wonder if there is some of the same hesitation with Matt Flynn but none the less, he’s a hot free agent.  His Chrome Auto rookies are up to almost $50 from the prior weeks $35.

4. Trevor Bauer 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto

Bauer

Comments: Smart prospectors know to buy nothing upon the release of the product right?  I mean, c’mon, wait for it to cool down before you do your buying as people overpay right away.  Or not, it seems that this year if you had loaded up on names like Nimmo, Lindor, Bauer and Starling you’d already be in a profit position with potential more to come.  Bauer stuff sold in the mid-$30s initially, $40 last week and one Chrome Auto hit $56 this week.

5. Bryce Harper 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto

Harper

Comments: As baseball season creeps up on us, people are starting to think about all the big names, including Bryce’s.  Is it possible Bryce could wind up with a starting outfield spot?  I guess so, maybe not probable but possible and just in the inclusion of his name on that Opening Day lineup card would cause prices to go crazy.  Some are betting on this and already Harper autos are now in the $275 range and previously more in the $225 range.  With as many autos as Harper has on the market, it presents an opportunity to be patient and make sure your buy is in the lower part of the range – this is the beauty of multiple issues.

6. Cam Newton 2011 SP Authentic Rare Autos

Newton

Comments: Card producers must have absolutely loved this years rookie class in football.  Even in today’s modern era, the NFL is still the hardest sport to have an impact in as a rookie it seems.  However, that didn’t stop Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and a host of others from making their presence felt on the field last fall and as a result boy do products sell.  It’s much easier to swallow the cost of an SP Authentic box when you could pull a Cam Newton autograph /25 that sells for four figures and that’s exactly what is happening in this year’s SP Authentic.  Cam stuff continues to sell very very well.

Now, with only NBA Basketball going on right now…there’s not a lot of Hot List fodder, so lets play some Hot List potpourri, a variety of observations I’ve had while researching this week’s list.

How to screw up a good thing:

Each and every year football collectors await the release of Contenders – it is a standard in the football community.  In the past couple years, Panini has upped it’s game by using on-card autographs for many of the more desired players.  So why would you create a design that makes an 0n-card look like a sticker and is just generally ugly, I truly do not get it.  Last year’s design was simple, not outstanding but not bad either and this year, you go off and do this?

How to inadvertently screw up and make a good thing:

“Anderw” Luck Leaf Prismatic Error cards /39 are back over $300 again, all due to board members catching a spelling error.  Totally unintended but this provides publicity (yes, both good and bad) for the Leaf brand and per the sell sheet released for this product, there are more Luck cards to come from Leaf in a variety of prismatic flavors – don’t expect to pick one of those up for cheap.

How to admit when you’ve screwed up, that’s a good thing:

If you haven’t been listening to the FCB podcast, you’re missing out.  Lots of good hobby information and some laughs along the way.  Brian Gray was recently interviewed and mentioned his experiences with Razor in 2008 and lots of lessons learned.  As everyone knows, nothing has sparked more opinions on FCB than Razor and Leaf but to hear a CEO talk about lessons of the past and incorporation of them into future products is a good thing any way you slice it.

How to make a good thing out of an otherwise screwed up situation:

I’m a cold hard capitalist, I want as many competitors in the market competing for my consumer dollar as possible, it means I get better product and more value for less money.  So therefore, all the exclusivity regarding professional sports licenses simply doesn’t suit me.  However, Upper Deck has taken their college license and made lemonade and lemonade when a proper mixture of sweet and sour tastes pretty darn good.  Judging by sales prices of last year’s Exquisites and this year’s SP Authentics, collectors are liking the current mix Upper Deck has going on in football.

Something previously good, now screwed up:

Just a couple years ago, when I started writing this list, I was fairly frequently researching base chrome cards.  However, the fact that every prospect of any note now has a base card and an autograph chrome card has really taken a lot of the value out of those Bowman products and its too bad.  Opening packs of 2006 Bowman Chrome knowing that there were multiple base cards that could be pulled that would cover the cost of your pack was a lot of fun, no longer.

 

Until next week…

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – January 6th 2012 Edition

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Since the last Hot List, something very significant has changed, its a New Year! Although I don’t believe that any specific resolutions were made here on the Hot List, nor on FCB in general, there is certainly plenty to be excited about.  I talk to FCB’s owner (cgilmo) fairly frequently and 2012 is going to be a big year for the website.  Most notably, a mobile application that is in development currently – that’s right, you can read these interwebs on an application on your telephone.

A large part of that mobile application will be blog related content, the Hot List at the head of that of course (my own opinion) but hopefully that will be just the beginning – if you feel you are a writer and want to do it for FCB, this is the time to step forward.  Anyway, I digress, on the plenty to look forward to front, in the time from last week to this week, we had the Hot List candidate well go from dry to flooded.  Much of this is related to collectors looking forward to things and in some strange way it is with many names that we’ve seen before.

 

1. Matt Flynn 2008 Rookie Autos

Flynn

Comments: If a year ago, you had to pick a team whose individual players you were going to buy, with the intention of selling their cards later, the Packers would have been the right move.  We all know about Aaron Rodgers but don’t forget about the huge price spikes seen by Jordy Nelson, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson (Panini Autos), Jermichael Finley, James Starks and Matt Flynn (he’s been on this list before), yes that Matt Flynn the guy who backs up Aaron.  See the thing about Matt is although he’s behind a guy who is playing the QB position as well as it has ever been played, when he gets in, he does his best Matt Cassel impression.  What I mean by that is that when the system and pieces around you are so good, it almost seems hard not to succeed.  However, last Sunday, Matt didn’t just succeed, he beat a playoff team, put up nearly 500 yards of passing and threw 6 touchdowns, yes six.  Many of his rookie autos quadrupled after this performance and you have to know that if Aaron Rodgers would go down at some point Packers fans at least believe they have a viable back up option.

2. Joe Webb National Treasures Autos

Webb

Comments: To say the Vikings QB situation over the past few years has been interesting is an understatement.  The Brett Favre drama almost goes without saying but even beyond that – Tavaris Jackson’s ups and downs, the signing of Donovan McNabb who went from solid QB to not even backup worthy  in a couple years, Christian Ponder’s great games and rookie moments and much more.  However, one guy who has taken advantage of the opportunities he’s had is Joe Webb.  Joe made this list last year after running for a couple TDs and here he is again after a good performance last Sunday.  National Treasures autographs went from $8.5 to $30 this week.

3. Kyle Lowry 2006-07 Exquisite Autos

Lowry

Comments: I really liked Kyle when he came out of Villanova, however, he just never seemed to put it together in Memphis, a team that always seemed to have a lot of young talent but never really got results.  There’s also the whole Mike Conley Jr. thing and a lack of understand about who is THE point guard.  However, lack of understanding no more – Kyle is the guy in Houston and had a much better year last year and so far has taken it to another level this year – currently averaging over 15 ppg and 10 apg.  Kyle’s once unloved Exquisite Autos were selling in the $30-$50 range but are now rising – one hit an all-time high this week of $100.

4. Andrew Bynum SPX Auto Rookies /1499

Bynum

Comments: For a guy who is often injured and still hasn’t hit his full potential, Bynum’s name is certainly in the new a lot, usually related to trips to the injured reserve but the fact is, he’s a Laker and that gets you some publicity no matter what.  It’s not like Bynum has been awful, he average 15 and 9 in 2009-2010 and 11 and 10 in 2010-11 but people are expecting Dwight Howard like production from this guy and that’s exactly what they are getting in the 4 games he’s played in 2011-12, a double double in each game and on the average 22 and 16.  If he keeps this pace up, uninjured, the sky is the limit for his rookie autos.  SPXs were selling for $16 a piece and then a lot was purchased at the price of $40 per, that will look cheap if he keeps up the pace.

5. Victor Cruz 2010 Playoff Contenders Auto RC

Cruz

Comments: That’s right, the guy who was likely undrafted in your fantasy draft wound up with 1536 yards of receiving and 9 touchdowns this year.  Everyone expected an enormous year from Hakeem Nicks and he fell into the shadow of Victor Cruz – who had 17 yds receiving total in his first two games and 1519 in his next 14.  Victor’s Contenders autos were at one time SO CHEAP, single digit dollars last year, heck, they were in the $40s last week and after yet another huge game rocketed up into the $70s with one touching $82!

6. Ricky Rubio 2009-10 Exquisite Autos /225

Rubio

Comments: Ricky was drafted and then stayed in Spain, disappointing for those who pulled cards like the one above out of packs of Exquisite.  However, now Ricky is playing for the T-Wolves and if people who snagged those Exquisite Autos were patient enough to hold onto them, they are seeing the fruits now.  Just a week ago these were at $250 and now they are at $450.  Ricky is averaging 9 points a game for the T-Wolves and 7 assists a game but many believe that’s just the start.

7. Chris Ivory 2010 Playoff Contenders Auto

Ivory

Comments: Like Flynn, Webb and Cruz, Chris Ivory has seen this list before but it has certainly been a while.  Chris had a few great games for the Saints last year that gave his 2010 Contenders Autos some attention, in the meantime, he got lost in the mix of Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram and all the other offensive weapons the Saints have.  Then he reappeared recently with a touchdown in the last week of the season, his first of the year.  If you know one thing about the Saints it is that anyone can score TDs for them.  So its certainly possible that Chris’ role (and likely card values) increase headed into the Playoffs, a week ago his Contenders were under $10 bucks and now they can’t be had for under $20.
8. Trevor Bauer High End 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Parallels

Bauer

Comments: I’m not sure if someone is on a hoarding run or not but Trevor’s high-end Draft parallels and other rarer parallels are scorching.  Just a week ago you could get a blue for $150 and one went off last night for $290.  There are many who believe Bauer will be given a shot at the big league rotation in Spring Training this year and if that’s the case, things are only going to get hotter.
9. Xander Bogaerts 2011 Leaf Auto Rookies

Bogaerts

Comments: Xander is the top prospect on a big market baseball team and he only has a couple autos – you know what that is, a recipe for high prices.  Xander’s an international signee who made it into a couple Leaf products this fall and is now making it onto a lot of top prospect list at a premium position.  Often times when a flood of new product comes out, a month or two later you see certain players start to rise as collectors have more time to evaluate the price points and that’s just what is happening to Xander.  With limited releases there is a chance for more upward movement if Xander performs well this year, in the mean time his Valiants went from $8 to more like $15 this week.

10. Bubba Starling 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Starling

Comments: Does anyone remember Jesus Montero in 2008 Bowman Chrome Draft?  Big name prospect who due to redemptions was cheaper than many expected initially, once chrome autos were in hand, prices rose.  Exact same thing happened to Bubba this year, redemptions were $35-$40 and now in hand autos are selling in the mid-$50s.

11. Kevin Love 2008-09 Topps Chrome Parallels

Love

Comments: After an injury ended his year last year, Kevin is back with a vengeance.  6 games, 6 double doubles, averaging 26 points and 15 rpg, I really believe he could keep that up, as insane as that sounds.  The 2008-09 Topps Chrome product has already produced insane prices in the form of Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook but here comes Kevin Love – parallels are up about 50% this week and Orange Refractors which aren’t exactly rare /499 are selling for $50.

 

 

 

2011 Bowman Draft 5 Up, 2 Down

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Every year as Bowman Draft Picks comes out people start reading up on the prospects they pull or to search out prospects to buy. This article was submitted for use by FCB from Project Prospect.com writer Adam Foster to help you guys get a clearer picture of who to buy.

Five Up:  These are guys that Adam thinks have great upside, and should be stocked up on.

Trevor Bauer – It’s a little silly to downgrade Bauer for his build or mechanics. He has top-of-the-rotation upside and is a good bet to pitch in the big leagues in 2012. If you’re looking for knocks on him, keep a close watch on his fastball command and ability to keep his breaking ball down in the zone. He may be prone to giving up home runs and running up high pitch counts. He also threw a lot of innings his junior season, which is a mild reason for concern. That said, for projecting out the next three years, Bauer may be the best combination of upside and floor of any pitcher from his draft class.

Jed Bradley – I caught a glimpse at Bradley during his final start at the Arizona Fall League. A lefty with a good frame, he showed a low-90s fastball with a bit of movement and a decent slider. I did not see an impressive changeup or a high-upside talent. I did see a likely major leaguer who could surface as a mid-rotation arm before long.

Taylor Guerrieri – I’ve already had one scout go out of his way to bring up Guerrieri in my scout calls this offseason. Lincoln Hamilton, who does Project Prospect’s draft coverage, had Guerrieri at No. 6 overall on his 2011 draft board, citing his sound mechanics, mid-90s fastball and power curveball as reasons to get excited. He has outstanding arm strength and isn’t a max-effort guy. Up the tempo a little and you have a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.

Joe Panik – Bigger and more physical than I expected, Panik looked the part of a MLB second baseman when I saw him at the AFL. He has a sound approach, not overly aggressive but ready to turn on pitches. He’s a good contact hitter who controls at-bats. Though I don’t think he’s going to be an elite big leaguer or a shortstop, I do think he will move quickly and have a solid professional career as a second baseman.

Bubba Starling – Raw but extremely gifted, Starling has outstanding bat speed and a strong, athletic frame. He takes some ugly hacks and doesn’t have a pretty, natural swing. His ability to drive the ball is a product of his quick bat and raw strength. A high-upside talent, Starling should be able to reach the big leagues on bat speed and athleticism alone. If he can polish his game in the years to come, he may surface as a star. Just know that he could be a bit of a long-term project.

Two Down:  Guys that Adam isn’t as high on as others.

Robert Stephenson – I usually try to see any elite draft talents in my area. Stephenson played his high school baseball less than 10 miles from my house. After seeing video of his high-effort mechanics and reliever arm action, I didn’t feel inclined to schedule a day to see him pitch. Stephenson may throw hard and offer deception, but I see his odds of being able to handle a starter’s workload, given his mechanics, to be very slim.

Taylor Jungmann – Jungmann releases the ball with a distracting, neck-wrenching head whack. He has a big frame and throws hard. He also made good strides with his command and strikeout rate from 2010 to 2011. I still have trouble jumping fully on board with Jungmann, as I think he’s going to have trouble throwing quality strikes to professional hitters with his head whack. That said, he’s pretty smooth in his windup and did have a lot off success in the college game.