Sports Card Hot List for January 7th 2013

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It’s National Championship day and my Crimson Tide (whom you are probably tired of me talking about) are up for a back to back national title.  As I write they are murdering Notre Dame just before the half in such a way that ND might not get another shot at a big championship game without some sort of miracle.  Hail Mary mother of grace will be repeated over and over during the half by casual Catholics every where.  It also might be worth noting that @Pontifex has been mysteriously quiet the entire game.  That’s ok because TJ Yeldon and Eddie Lacy are providing me with plenty of chuckles as they tear through what was supposed to be an excellent defensive front 7.

And now for hobby news.  Richard McWilliams passed away today at the age of 59.  It’s a sad day when any one leaves family behind prematurely, and this case is no different.  Yes there were people in this industry that hated him.  With his passing let’s put all that behind us and see what lies ahead for an Upper Deck company who at least publicly can claim a fresh start and maybe recover from an image stand point to produce some of the great cards that we all loved before their license was pulled.  If they worked as hard on a MLB brand (with proper licencing) the payoff for collectors and hobby stores would be large.  I for one am pulling for fresh new start for Jason Masherah, Chris Carlin, Gregg Kohn and everyone else at UD.

The new FCB Mobile App has released on Android.  You can pick it up here. At least one reviewer had it right when he said that “Gilmo is a stud muffin”.  You are correct sir and your check is also in the mail.  Speaking of in the mail, this week also saw a huge volume of our hot list champion of the week.

 

Russell Wilson#1 Russell Wilson Rookie Cards

Hot across the board is anything with Russell Wilson’s name on it.  Writers across the country are praising his toughness and leadership.  This isn’t normal for a pro athlete in Seattle as they are more often regulated to regional coverage.  Even the Boston based NESN was quick to feature Wilson in articles after his big win vs RGII and the Washington Redskins.

His cards have been popping all week and in playoff week 1 they hit another all time high as his Topps Chrome autograph went from $90 to $150.  Even his base cards are taking off as a base strata can sell for about $8.  Not to be overlooked is his baseball rookie card in 2010 bowman chrome.  At $12 for a base rookie that could be bought for 50 cents even late in the football season you have to take that to the bank at this point.

Mark Montgomery#2 Mark Montgomery Contenders Autos

The AFL will always have a huge influence on prospect card prices.  Prospectors have nothing else to view during this time.  No minor league stat lines to follow, and unless there is a trade in the works it’s a very slow season for prospecting.

He has dominated the AFL though, holding hitters to a .143 average.  His cards are just as dominant.  It’s now the most expensive non SP card in the set as he has no other cards.  The cards went from $3 box to almost $30 as Yankee collectors start to stock up.  Javier Baez is still the steal from this set but then again he is the steal in every 2011 prospect auto set.

 

boomo

#3 An incredible rant by group case breaker “boomo”

I’m not really sure exactly what got in his crawl but man did he get angry.  You can watch the video here.  My guess is that it’s a breaking point due to blowout moderating a few threads of his and users addressing complaints that he views to be trivial.  At any rate he’s fun to watch  Poor Joe Adams, he is innocent in all this.

mike zunino#4 Mike Zunino Bowman Draft Autographs

The market has dried up and there are about half the copies of this card traded online than were available shortly after release.  The current precieved “best” autograph in 2012 Bowman Draft gets it’s natural January price bump and will probably get another one during spring training as he will get a non roster invite and some playing time.

In the meantime a $60 card moves close to $80 as supply gets short.

 

 

 

AJ McCarron#5 2009 Razor US Army AJ McCarron

This is a complete and total homer call.  Although it was hot for a few hours.  Copies that were previously unsold started selling in the $2-$4 range.

As an Alabama fan we kinda have this whole love hate relationship with our quarterbacks.  We recognize that we need them to play well, but we also understand that the game plan is to win by running the football, controlling the clock and playing defense.  As Bama thumped Notre Dame in the title game AJ was able to force ND to respect the pass enough to open up the run.

 

TJ Yeldon#6 TJ Yeldon Leaf US Army Metal Autographs

This isn’t a traditional BCS Title Game bump.  Normally those wait for stellar performances after the game.  This is a result of all the hype leading up to the game.

These refractors that used to sell for $50 can now bring $70.  It does not appear that people are willing to sell them at that price as buy it nows are still really high and the cards are selling at a really low volume.  It’s only a matter of time before someone starts throwing down big money on these so hold them if you got em.

 

ncaa-football-logo#7 Anyone calling for a BCS Playoff System

With the current landscape Notre Dame absolutely deserved to be in the title game.  With a playoff in place they would probably have never been in position to make the biggest game of the year a complete snooze fest.  Personally I would love to see a +1 solution where 1 plays 4, 2 plays 3.  Then we would have a fully vetted national champion worthy of any scrutiny.

Panini#8 2012-13 Panini Prizim Hobby Boxes

People are still chasing the high end content in this product and boxes are well above MAP.  It’s about time one basketball product holds it’s value and does not rot on shelves.

Boxes are up from $100 to $130 proving that the chrome formula works even when products are done halfway like this one is.

 

Sports Card Hot List for December 14th 2012

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The one thing you can’t bank on when you are prospecting is an off season trade.  It can be a great influence on the value of the prospect you have been stashing.  When a guy who has promise gets traded to a team that desperately needs him the hype needle starts rising due to a fan base hoping for something better.  The fans of the Flushing Mets fit that role nicely as they netted two nice prospects in exchange for knuckle baller RA Dickey.  Noah Syndergaard and Travis D’Arnaud were under the radar prospects north of the border.  Now that they are in the big apple, they are getting plenty of hype.  Both had enough of that hype to make this list.  Let’s start with the football though as that is what the winter is all about.

Colin Kaepernick#1 Colin Kaepernick Chrome Autographs

This is his second appearance as a #1 on this list.  It takes beating Tom Brady in a marquee matchup game to make that happen.  Although he was a little shaky at times he made the plays necessary as that stout Niners D fought off Brady and the Pats as they pulled out all the stops and still came up short.

Questions about his mechanics aren’t as visible as they were in camp, and the fan base has accepted him not as the quarterback of the future but the uncontested starter.  Even myths of his elongated delivery have been debunked.  His chrome autographs have doubled from about $50 to $100 with this win.  It’s good to own a stash of this guy.

Russell Wilson#2 Russell Wilson Finest Autographs

It’s a quarterback friendly week with three of them on this list.  One of them is a backup making a hot list appearance even more unlikely.  The NFL is truly a pass happy quarterback league.

Russell’s week highlights weren’t in the air.  He accounted for 3 scores on the ground with 92 yards.  Most running backs would be quite happy with that alone.  His ability to stay calm and not make mistakes is very unlike most rookies.  His near perfect selling of play fakes is also better than the rest of the class including Andrew Luck.  This mix of good decision making and great technique has made him look like a franchise quarterback and his cards are starting to go for what they should.  Finest patch autographs are around the $100 mark but won’t stay there long if he has more games like this.  It seems like it’s just a matter of exposure.

Knowshon Moreno#3 Knowshon Moreno Topps Chrome Autographs

I never really thought Moreno would bounce back.  When I look at the guys profile I see a guy who is way too small for the NFL.  He has an incredible motor and when healthy he’s a great addition to any team.  I just don’t see him as a feature back.

Any player can gain hype though.  When he leaped over Ed Reed he created his own hype.  Add that to back to back great statistical weeks and you have your price spike.  His gold refractors climbed from $20 to $60 this week.  It was interesting that there was so little volume of this card sold previous to these past two weeks that I had to go to terapeak.com to get a baseline sell value.

Frank Thomas#4 2012 Leaf Memories High End Autographs

Almost out of no where Memories is a great product.  It gives player collectors something new to chase in the buyback autographs of players like Frank Thomas (pictured) Greg Maddux, Nolan Ryan, and Cal Ripken Jr.

Some dealers are complaining about low allocations as this product was extremely limited and when you run a hobby shop you have to fight for all of the good product you can.

Shops want more for good reason as the high end stuff is selling extremely well.  Frank Thomas popped out of the gate at $350.

Noah Syndergaard#5 Noah Syndergaard Chrome Autos

One of the chips in the RA Dickey deal, evaluators have seen talent ever since he hit the radar.  His potential isn’t in doubt but his maturity is.  Before the deal Noah made a bad decision by tweeting a gay slur on his twitter account.  If you can give him any defense at all you can say that Crocs on a man look really dumb.  And I just had to delete a slur to another group of individuals and replace it with the word dumb.  That kind of mistake can happen to anyone as we say things like that and don’t think anything of it.  It’s sad, but it’s also a part of society as some of these words have taken on an alternate meaning.  Reckless tweet or not his chrome autographs have certainly responded.  A refractor autograph that was sitting in your bulk autograph box since you pulled it is $50 bucks now.

Travis D'arnaud#6 Travis D’Arnaud Chrome Autographs

The other part of the Dickey deal is a major league ready catcher.  And this one has some serious pop.  He’s frequently on MiLB offensive leader board in key stats like OPS and Home runs.  He should also be the full time starting catcher for the Mets next year.  I personally do not see anything standing between him and success.  He is a big star waiting to happen.

Similar to Syndergaard his autographs have doubled and refractors are near the $50 mark right now.  They may dip some initially but come this spring they won’t hold there.

 

Kirk Cousins#7 Kirk Cousins Rookie Autographs

Matt Shaub, TJ Yates, Kevin Kolb, Jeff Hostetler.  All backup quarterbacks who have had hobby success during their tenure as a backup quarterback.

The Skins wanted some insurance in case they were wrong about Robert Griffin.  Turns out they didn’t need the policy for long term protection.  However as RG3 gets acclimated to the NFL and learns that he can’t always run circles around people up here they will need Kirk to step in when Griffin gets his bell rung.  He stepped in big time this Sunday vs the Cleveland Browns with a 104 passer rating and over 300 yards in the air.  DC needs him for now, but could easily obtain an offer sheet for him as other teams are watching this audition with a ton of interest.  Collectors and speculators have that same interest as his certified autograph more than doubled from $16 to $40.

Adrian Peterson#8 Adrian Peterson Rookie Autos

I’m not really sure what people are waiting for.  This league punishes running backs and they seldom achieve lasting success but if Peterson retired today he is in the hall.  If he keeps up his production he could be in the conversation for best running back ever.  Fresh off of knee surgery he pushes Eric Dickerson’s 30 year old single season rushing record.  With two weeks left he needs 293 yards.  He faces two good defenses in Houston and Green Bay, but I wouldn’t bet against that record falling.

If that record does fall look for his rookie cards to climb even higher.  As people are starting to grasp the fact that this just might happen his contenders autograph went from $225 to $325.

 

 

FCB Weekly Hot List October 19th 2012 Edition

Bowman chrome week, and it’s kinda large and in charge.  I watched about 5 cases being broke at the store and it was pretty intense.  Seems like they got the production problems of the past handled as this set seems to have fewer errors in it than most that I can think of off hand.  Some of the signatures kinda suck, that means 10 autograph grades will be tough to come by.  I think Jon Singleton used the same pen on every one of his signatures as it’s bold on the parallels and then streaky on every thing else.

During this 5 case rip at the shop there is a moment where all of the breakers erupt in a celebration at once.  It’s because they hit an orange refractor autograph of the big hit in the set and this weeks hot list #1 Jorge Soler.  But hey, some times betting goes your way.

#1 Jorge Soler Bowman Chrome Auto

Chrome is out and it’s still king.  This is the best autograph you can hit in the new bowman chrome so that is an easy formula for making it #1 on this weeks hot list.

The refractors hit $150 out of the gate and some of the larger parallels are being held for a kings ransom.

I would still rather buy Miguel Sano who is probably closer to seeing big league action.  I guess Soler playing for the Cubs gives him a bump because they have to have SOMETHING to look forward to.

 

#2 Russell Wilson Finest Patch Autos

One week he upsets the Patriots.  The next week he lays an egg vs division rival San Fransisco.

All in all he’s put together an impressive rookie season and the base version of this Topps finest patch auto went up to $50 from $30.

 

#3 Billy Hamilton Bowman Chrome Auto

There is always room for a solid #2 right?  Every Batman needs a Robin, every Captain America needs a Bucky, and every big monster bowman chrome autograph needs a second card that isn’t quite as big but still very nice. Speedster Billy Hamilton fills that role for Soler.

Man, reading that makes me realize that I spend WAY too much time in a comic book shop.  Hamilton’s entered the market at about 7 Alexanders, but will likely drop a bit soon much like the other big hits.  Sell em now folks.

 

 

# 4 Nick Castellanos Bowman Chrome Auto

One of the interesting sub plots in this product is watching two cards of two people competing for a position in the same organization going head to head.  Nick Castellanos and Avisal Garcia are both big bats in the Detroit Tigers system who will eventually compete for playing time.

Right now they are competing on the hot list as Nick edges out Avisal for the #3 spot.  His chrome autographs debuted at $45 while Avisail is a bit behind.  Cheer up Garcia you are clearly Tim McCarver’s pick for the job.

Nick’s cards probably got the edge because of his familiarity with collectors.  There are already people collecting his cards and they were waiting for this one.

#5 Tyler Austin Bowman Chrome Autos

Sometimes in a chrome set you have top prospect and then you have top Yankee.  Sometimes top Yankee can be more valuable than top prospect.  In this case it isn’t that extreme as Tyler’s bowman chrome refractors are about half what a George Soler is at $75

He’s a big kid with a big bat in a big system.  Seems like we have heard this story a thousand times.  It can be a dream come true for people holding cards when a prospect pops.  Just ask anyone holding Jesus Montero when he got the prospect evaluator love.  Once these settle down there could be some prospecting to do.

 

#6 Robert Griffin III Anything

Greatness with consistency is the winning formula for anything anyone will ever do.  Take this list for example.  One of the best things about it when Phil Mason does it is the consistency of the writing style combined with the greatness of the writing style.  Don’t worry guys, he will be back soon.

RG3 has been the embodiment of greatness and consistency.  He got knocked out in the Falcons game, but has bounced back nicely.  This Finest red /25 sold for $425 this week and that is up from it’s previous sale of $350.

#7 2011-12 UD Exquisite Basketball

It’s another step forward in NCAA basketball cards as UD continues to test the market and expand college collectible sports cards into a real high end market.

They certainly did their part with this release with the look of the cards in this set.  While I am not a fan of the use of the word “bling” because I am a crabby old man who wants these kids off my lawn, I have to respect the overall look of the card.  That gold holofoil really pops in hand.

 

#8 Avisail Garcia Bowman Chrome Auto

Showing maturity in 23 late season at bats for a contender can set you up with all sports of possibilities.  For Avisail it was a spot on the post season roster.

Any team in baseball will take a .368 on base percentage from their 8 spot in the line up.  Tigers fans are now looking to the future with this guy.  He still has Nick Castellanos to compete with, so this could get fun down the road.

His chrome autos debuted at $30 making him the fourth best pull in 2012 Bowman Chrome Baseball.