FCB Weekly Hot List August 31st 2012 Edition

I’ve discovered another reason that writers in particular love lists.  They spare you the pain of trying to link together a bunch of disparate thoughts and allow you to say whatever you want, whenever you want, however you want but just remember you can’t always get what you want but if you try sometimes, you just might find….sigh, that job I had in high school where we listened to classic rock 8 hours a day, it haunts me.

Did anyone see Mick Jagger at the Olympics?  Someone tell the guy to take the Halloween costume off.  What’s that you say?  Oh really…scary.

Anyway all that said get ready for another list before the lists

1. The 4th week of the preseason really cements why “the preseason doesn’t matter” because all the scrubs play and because teams like mine (Chargers) get absolutely murdered, so I’m going to go curl up in a corner and repeat “it doesn’t matter” while clicking my red slippers together and holding a small dog named after an ’80s band (wait, you mean the dog came first?  And the spelling isn’t even the same?  Oh, sigh.)

2. And speaking of that, after the crummy football, I turned to the RNC convention which reminded me that no matter who they are coming from I pretty much dislike all political speeches.

3. But, I’m not sure I dislike political speeches as I do the idea of these replacement officials adversely impacting games this NFL season.

4. But I still probably like them better than Roger Goddell, “no violent hitting, this is football!!!”

5. And maybe I like all that better than the fact that this week sucks for hot list fodder because we aren’t into the stretch run for baseball quite yet and the NFL is playing games that repeat after me “DO NOT MATTER.”

6. But speaking of games that don’t matter it doesn’t prevent folks from over analyzing the daylights out of the games.  Did you know that Antonio Browns Grandma’s fern had more targets in the 32nd second of the 3rd quarter of the last three games last year than Mike Wallace did?  It was a party of Matthew Berry’s love letter to Antonio.

7. Did you know that many years ago I picked Kevin Smith in his 2nd year because of his studly 9 game finish in his rookie year?

8. Did you know in spite of all that I won my league that year?  Kevin Smith doesn’t often cause people to win leagues.

9.  Maybe Prince Fielder will make an appearance in the Detroit backfield this year?  Cecil will then make a bet on his performance.  Oh, I just did.

10. Andrew Luck cards continue to sell for insane money and probably for good reason but if you are buying Topps Finest to hit those cards – you are going to need to buy about 20 cases, my goodness those are impossible.  They need a separate subset called “Needle in a Haystack” and it will be populated with Griffin and Luck autos.

1. Russell Wilson 2012 Autos

Wilson

Comments: I was talking to a friend here in Kansas City who was going to the Chiefs vs. Seahawks game last week and mentioning Russell Wilson as a superior athlete that he’d want to watch.  I’m not sure he paid that much attention to me but I didn’t know how right I was going to be.  Wilson played out of his mind and was named starter subsequently (even though they just signed Matt “I had one good game ever and was not so hot at LSU” Flynn).  Russell’s autos, Inception included over doubled this week.


2. Darin Ruf 2010 Bowman Chrome Parallels

Ruf

Comments: Guys like Darin Ruf are tough.  They have literally nothing sell for a long period of time and then all of a sudden they go off and break Ryan Howard’s Eastern League home run record and Green Xfractors, the retail parallels now sell for over twice what Blue Refractors previously sold for.

3. 2012 Topps Mini Boxes

Mini

Comments: A few weeks back I had Topps Mini Singles on this list and now we have the boxes – they have completely sold out from Topps and are now selling for $75 versus the prior $50. It remains to be seen how Topps will overproduce these next year killing the value.

Ok, so lets try something different, in no particular order, the cold list.

Tommy Hanson Chrome Autos

Hanson

Comments: Don’t you remember when Tommy was the hot name in the Braves world of prospects?  I believe his 2007 base chromes were once $5 (now lucky to be one) and anything that was Chrome and had an auto on it was bringing in some significant coin.  Now, Gold Refractor Auto BGS 9.5s sell for $100.  You may be saying “Phil, it’s a $100 card how can it be on the cold list.”  The answer is simply, it used to be so much more.

Jeremy Jeffress

Jeffress

Comments: I bought what seemed like a gazillion AFLAC parallel redemption sets in 2005 (more on that in a minute) but one of the Refractors that I pulled and often graded was Jeremy Jeffress.  Now his chrome autos sell for $.99, he’s a reliever for the Royals who can’t seem to stick in the bigs.

6. Billy Rowell

Rowell

Comments: Oh Billy. Billy was the high school bat in the 2006 Draft and in the year of crazy Draft prices we saw it when Billy’s Blue Refractors started selling for $100, it was insanity.  Billy hasn’t panned out to the say the least and collectors still holding a Billy hoard are in for a rude surprise when they realize that those same Blue Refractors are now selling for $.99.

7. Jon Papelbon 2003 Chromes

Papelbon

Comments: Jon was at the beginning of the prospect craze.  He and Ryan Howard powered the 2003 set to much popularity.  Jon’s done nothing but put up stunning numbers since his emergence on the scene but all he’s got to show for it is Chromes that sell for $3 and Xfractor 9.5s that now sell for $15, a far cry from his $20 Chromes. That would be a fun shirt “I’m a super successful closer but all I have to show for it is this $3 chrome.

8. Rick Porcello 2008 Chromes

Porcello
Comments: Coming off what was maybe the biggest base set ever in draft history (2007) 2008 was a bust from a base set perspective.  Really the only thing that could be pulled and worth any value was Rick Porcello.  And now, he doesn’t have any value either – Refractors sell for $.99

Justin Masterson 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft

Masterson

Comments: Here’s the thing about prospecting.  You buy into a prospect in a big way, he comes up to the bigs and does ok, lets say for a pitcher a .500 record…you lose!  You lose big time.  Masterson Gold Refractors now sell for just $15ish for this pitcher that’s below .500

But but but it’s the Hot List, so we should end with something HOT!


Mike Trout Autos

Trout

Comments: If you even thought for a moment I was serious…schedule a head exam.  If Mike Trout were to run for political office even president wouldn’t be big enough, it would be God.  An Xfractor 9.5 sold for $810 this week, a Sterling Refractor 9.5 for $910 and a BGS 10 Refractor Auto for over $2k..

Andrew Luck Topps Finest Autos

Luck

Comments: The on-card auto shown above sold for over $2K, I can say no more.

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – July 27th 2012 Edition

Tyler Matzek.  That was the name that you wanted to pull when you were opening 2009 Bowman Draft.  He brought the biggest money.  Tyler long ago lost the crown of being the most distinguished auto from that class of autographs but in the past month, that set has taken on 2001 Bowman Chrome proportions due to the play of a man who has frequented this year’s Hot Lists.

Someone who nominated him in the Hot List thread said it best, “Trout has reached Pujols prices.”  For those who aren’t familiar, let me give you a two sentence briefing.  Albert Pujols is the bar by which all hot rookie cards are judged, anything with his face on it labeled 2001 is worth good money.  Albert Pujols helped establish the prospect market by setting the bar extraordinarily high when he came up to the majors and started dominating immediately.

And on that note, what does every prospector want?  A high ceiling right?  Typically this is thought of in terms of skill set but inevitably some combination of that skill set, on the field play, market dynamics, team dynamics and plenty of other variables translate into the price someone is willing to pay on eBay for any given card.  One of the things that can play into this mix is what prospect cards of similar players, with similar variables have previously sold for.  The fact that Mike Trout base Draft Autos are near $500, Blue Refractors $1350, Sterling 9.5s $350, Elite Parallels near $500 and on and on and on is setting that ceiling higher for the prospect market – Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg eat your heart out.

And speaking of eating your heart out, everyone is going to have a story for you regarding Trout cards that they bought and “sold too early.”  Now it’s true, those who held this long are cashing in, in ways unseen before in the prospect market and it is also true that the Trout phenomenon is probably going to cause prospectors to find a bunch of other players that they’ll hold to the bitter end, even when they aren’t performing like Trout but honestly, at the moment, lets just stand back in awe – those prices make you say “what recession?”

 

1. Mike Trout Anything

Trout

Comments: Let’s play a game, who has 16 home runs, is 20 points ahead in the AL batting race, has 31 stolen bases (has only been caught 3 times??!!??) and has an OPS of 1.019.  If you guessed the Cookie Monster or Stuart Scott, it’s now time to punish yourself.  The answer of course is Mr. Trout, about whom we spent the whole intro fawning over.  Mike’s season has been nothing short of stellar but his card prices have been perhaps even more amazing.  Refractors were around $400 the previous week and now are up to $660.  Seriously, could anyone have imagined Albert being this overshadowed?  Simply unreal.


2. Matt Harvey 2010 Bowman Chrome Autos

Harvey

Comments: This is the story of a boy, who cried a river and drowned the whole world.  I apologize for making you read that but there’s two relevant piece of information related to my crappy parody.  First, it just came up on my Pandora and secondly, I sold some Matt Harvey about a month ago and if I was flexible enough to kick myself in the face I just might.  Matt got called up and in 5 and 1/3  innings went beast mode on the Diamondbacks Thursday night striking out 11.  His Refractor Autos have easily doubled up from $30 last week and we’ve all seen where Mets prices can go…

3. Jered Weaver 2005 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Weaver

Comments: Speaking of beast mode, which is probably an outdated phrase at this juncture that I should get over, it’s where Jered Weaver lives.  His ERA in 2010 was 3.10, last year, 2.42 and this year on pace for 2.21.  There’s really only 1 A.L pitcher with comparable numbers and his name is Justin Verlander.  It seems like collectors are finally starting to take notice of this guy who headlined 2005 BCDP (Stephen who?) and his Refractor Autos which were more like $45 last week moved up to $60 and then had a recent sale over $100 this week.

4. Starling Marte 2011 Bowman Chrome Autos

Marte

Comments: Distraction.  It’s the word I would have most frequently used to describe Starling up until a few months ago.  Whenever I wanted to look up Bubba Starling Chrome Autos I would search “starling chrome au*” and up would pop Mr. Marte.  However, after he got some notoriety for a great spring training Starling became more a name of his own.  This week Starling got called up to the bigs and Thursday night in his leadoff at bat, first ever at bat in the Majors, Starling goes yard.  How.sweet.is.that.  Starling’s Chrome Autos jumped from $15 to $35 as a result.

5. Clay Holmes 2012 Bowman Chrome Autos

Homes

Comments: Pitchers drafted in the 9th round by the Pirates out of high school often don’t get a whole lot of attention.  Such was the case with Clay Holmes who prior to this week had Chrome Autographs that could be obtained for roughly $3.  However, players who pike up the kind of stats Clay has, even in short season generate a lot more interest – causing autograph prices to double.

6. Michael Fulmer 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Fulmer

Comments: Michael was one of the lesser known names in the 2011 Draft autograph class but that hasn’t bothered him a bit (as if he’d know…).  Michael has had a great season and continued that this week with two starts where he pitched 11 innings, struck out 15 allowed only one run.  Michael’s auto prices doubled from last week.

7. David Price 2008 Bowman Chrome Autos

Price

Comments: 2011 was a bit of a down year for David with a 12-13 record and an ERA in the mid-3s.  For 90% of the starting pitchers in the MLB, the ERA alone would represent a banner year but for David after coming off a 19-6 season where he had an ERA in the mid-2s, it wasn’t so good.  He’s back on track this year with 14 wins already and at this pace it seems very very likely he should get his first 20 win season.  Chrome Autos from 2008 Bowman moved up about 50% this week as a result of David’s continued excellent performance.

8. Dayan Viciedo 2009 Bowman Chrome Autos

Viciedo

Comments: Dayan is most well known in the card world for his 2008 Contenders Super SP Auto that sold for huge dollars upon release.  However, since then Dayan hasn’t been talked about as much except for a Hot List appearance earlier this year.  However, Dayan continues to compile a solid season for the White Sox and 2009 Chrome Refractor Autos moved to near $20 this week from $10-$15 last week.

9. Javier Baez 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Baez

Comments: Javier continues to excite Cubs fans as he does it all, lots of extra base hits, stolen bases and 49 games into the season an OPS that is still hovering near the number 1.  As long as he performs like this Javier’s Chrome Autos are going to continue rising and they did just that moving to $35 this week.

10. 2009 Draft Wax

Elite Wax

Comments: Guess what you can get in 2009 Wax?  Trout, Mike Trout.  Why not bookend the list with the guy who is hotter than anyone has been in years.  It’s not just Mike Trout singles prices that are rising, it’s 2009 Elite, Bowman Sterling and Bowman Draft boxes and in the chance you could get them, cases.  As is typically the case with wax, you are probably better off buying singles but the wax buyers will take their chances anyway!


 

 

 

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – July 20th 2012 Edition

Brouhaha is one of my favorite and also one of the most underutilized words in the English language.  In case you aren’t familiar with it, in most cases it is loosely used to talk about a conflict, an uproar or something of that nature.  Honestly, once you begin to think about it, conflict gets a lot of attention.   Not only are there a lot of synonyms for the word, there are lots of TV shows, books, movies and more media based on conflict – whether it’s Band of Brothers or Real Housewives of the FCB message boards, the conflict element of the show is what generates much of the interest.  Not only that, much of the study of history is a study of conflict and when people aren’t studying they are involved in it themselves, whether it’s in a place as formal as a courtroom, or as informal as chasing a mechanic around who ate a Twix that you thought was rightfully yours.

Lets hone in a little more – when a brawl happens in baseball, a fight in hockey, a headbutt in soccer, a brutal hit in football, or a throwdown in your local Pilates class – guess what gets the headlines – guess what you remember?  Anyone remember Pedro Martinez grabbing Don Zimmer’s noggin’, the Frenchman with the headbutt (if only they’d defended the Maginot Line that fiercely), Jerome Harrison’s hit(s) in football or the time that the lady in the orange spandex pulled the ponytail of the one wearing pink?  See, all of that’s  stuck in your head and what sticks in your head is probably what is most interesting to you, in many cases, conflict.  What brings the entire lunchroom to its feet?   Fiiiiight!!

I suppose it is worth a moment to reflect on why conflict of all varieties interests us so much.  A couple that come immediately to mind are first, it’s a rarity.  There are 162 games per team per baseball season and it’s unusual to have even one real good Kyle Farnsworth bench clearing brawl – rare is interesting both in serial numbers and events.  Second, not only is it rare but it brings out lesser known things about people – maybe you see the nice guy throw a punch, or maybe it’s some guy who appears to be the nice guy on the Internet who is all of a sudden making the swear filter work overtime.  As a side note, this is why Internet tough guys are so tiring, they are no longer rare and are therefore, quite lame.  Third, conflict is defining, that’s why wars are studied so intently in many cases – Gettysburg was a huge battle in the Civil War but it’s not like any tactics were developed there that were previously unheard of (charging up a hill into a hail of enemy bullets is all too common sadly, another instance immediately comes to mind – name that movie with Mel Gibson in WWI), nor was it the first time some piece of artillery was employed.  The truth of the matter was that it was Lee’s farthest advance into the North, he was turned back and as Gettysburg turned, so turned the war.

At this point in time, the fact that I have gone from sports, to message boards to now Civil War battles is maddening you and you’ve had your fill of it “but Phil, that’s Gettysburg!!!”  Here is the thing, often times we don’t know how influential any given conflict is going to be until well after it’s finished and thus we watch with the thought that this conflict might be the turning point or important for some other reason – it’s the demise of one party, the rise of another.

All of this brings me to one of the interesting points about a forum like FCB which we all enjoy.  In spite of the fact that it is often the most frustrating of days for the moderators/owners/members conflict days are often the highest traffic days and the most engagement you will see on a message board during any given period of time.  It’s certainly a strange sort of coincidence and this week on FCB we had a real doozy and while there is plenty to be thought and talked about as it relates to the subject of the conflict, the fact is that the thread in question must of had the highest rate of posting we’ve seen in quite some time and if only things were poppin’ like that regularly.  Come to think of it, I should somehow insert some more conflict into the Hot List.

Now onto some conflict that involves bats and balls.

1. Max Kepler 2010 Bowman Chrome Parallel Autos

Kepler

Comments: Q: What’s a sign of a card manufacturer either getting really lazy, or not having much to pick from photo-wise?  A: A picture of a guy in a shirt that says Twins baseball on his rookie card.  This is exactly what Max’s card says and as I recall this card was at one point a redemption – so it’s not like you could even have your T-shirt card fresh out of the pack.  All that aside, Max’s recent power surge has generated some renewed interest in his Chrome Autos and his Blues almost doubled this week moving from $13 to $25.


2. Javier Baez 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Baez

Comments: Do the names Hayden Simpson, Jeff Samarlonglastname, Andrew Cashner and Josh Kibbles and Vitters strike fear into the hearts of opposing teams?  Yeah, I didn’t think so in spite of the fact that they were recent first round draft picks.  However, at the risk of getting over excited this Cubs fan loves the fact that Javier Baez is absolutely beating the tar out of the ball, come to think of it like a rented billy goat one would hope.  As mentioned previously, it doesn’t take a lot of excite the large Cubs fan base and Baez’s recent power surge in Caterpillar town has driven his Chrome Autos up 50%.

3. Mike Trout 2009 Bowman Sterling Autos

Trout

Comments: We are running out of descriptors and types of fishes to make jokes about – Chinook, Rainbrow, Brown, Lake shoot we may have to go straight up O’Dell Lake in here and bust out a Dolly Varden reference.  A good way to think about it is did you think that at this juncture in the season Mike Trout would generate as much or more hype than Strasburg, Harper, Heyward and Pujols combined?  No, me neither.  Did you think that Base Sterling Autos would hit $225 when just the thought of 9.5s being there a couple weeks ago was absurd?  No, me neither.  Did you think Mike Trout would hit 450 foot bombs at Tiger Stadium?  No, me neither. 

4. Andrew McCutchen 2005 Topps Chrome Update Autos

McCutchen

Comments: Speaking of man, Andrew McCutchen.  At the time that I re-entered the hobby several years back 2004 AFLAC chrome sets were all the rage and who would have thought that in 2012 C.J. Henry’s star would be shining brighter than Maybin and Upton.  Oh wait, he didn’t make the KU basketball team as a walk-on?  Right.  Andrew McCutchen is a serious name in the NL MVP talk and his fantastic season is coinciding with a resurgence for the Pirates Jim Leyland style.  His 2005 Chrome Autos from Topps Chrome Update hit $90 this week, up from $70 last week – yeah, he knows what it is, black and yellow, black and yellow, black and yellow.

5. Jurickson Profar 2011 Bowman Chrome Autos

Profar

Comments: At 19 in AA Frisco Jurickson has proFAR exceeded expectations doing just about everything in his 3rd year in the minors.  This included hitting a home run in the Futures Game earlier in July.  Jurickson’s cards have just been getting hotter and hotter as the summer moves on as he rises up Top Prospect lists.  His Chrome Autos his $70 this week up from a touch under $50 last week.

6. Austin Meadows 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft USA Autos

Meadows

Comments: Austin Meadows isn’t exactly the kind of name that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing players.  And now hitting, Bambi!  I’m not sure why I thought of that as analogy for meadows but I’m sure Bambi was in a meadow at some time.  Austin, however, spends his time crushing the ball according to the comps that were laid on him (Josh Hamilton anyone?) and in high school that’s notable.  His 2011 Chrome Draft Autos have all but dried up and now even lowly things like refractors are moving!

7. 2012 Allen and Ginter Autos

Trout AG

Comments: If you want diversity in card land – Allen and Ginter is your place.  You might pull a relic of something unknown but unique, or you might hit a Mike Trout auto selling for an absurd amount of dollars, or you might hit an auto of a swimsuit model – all of these hits are going to get you the cost of your box back and then some and that’s why Ginter is a regular on this list.

8. Robinson Cano 2003 Bowman Heritage Autos

Cano

Comments: Doncha know?  I actually don’t know why that nickname is so dang catchy.  ***shaking fist at Booyah network**  Robbie has been in the news recently for his exclusion of Billy Butler from the All Star HR Derby but the reason he’s on this list is because he’s having an unreal offensive season and BGS 9s are now selling for close to $500.


And a few more things:

I was a little disappointed in the response (READ: None) asking for your best hobby related “Call Me Maybe” parody.  That either points out 1. extreme lameness in me for asking or 2. extreme lameness on your end for not responding.  Your inspiration is  this so respond in the Hot List thread.

There’s a good reason to respond to, quality points.

Speaking of which, pointing out some of the strange references that I often make in the Hot List could also get you some quality points.

Speaking of references, does anyone remember ESPN posting those articles after a Dennis Miller Monday Night Football broadcast decoding his references – my goodness, that makes me feel somewhat normal.

Mike Trout is good for the market – basic economics says that to make a sale a buyer and seller must agree on price.  Often times, I think prospectors forget that there must be someone to sell to when their prospect gets hot.  The fact that Mike Trout autos crossed $200 means that the next time a prospects auto bumps up against a normal barrier like $100, there are going to be more buyers because the upside has been recognized before

Nomination Line of the Week, jcmint: “hot list kate upton for so many reason.”

Non-Nomination of the Week:  Reiteration that Mike Trout is hot – oh really….