Tag Archives: Jeremy Lin

FCB Weekly Hot List – February 23rd 2012 Edition

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There’s something beautiful about the fact that lots of sweet products come out during the off season, it is like a little holdover for us avid fans, who can’t do without thinking about that sport for the better part of the year.  We are now in the NFL and MLB off-seasons simultaneously and true to form we’ve had several notable products released over the past few weeks.  Namely, football Contenders, football SP Authentic, baseball Contenders and football Five Star.  Just around the corner are 2012 Leaf Metal Draft and 2011 Panini National Treasures.  All of these releases create an interesting dynamic in the market, that I believe gives shrewd buyers an opportunity and collectors a chance to spend a little less money on that card they want.

The typical belief has been that prices for any given product are highest shortly after release.  Now, in all fairness, I have to challenge that assertion in the case of some prospect laden products like this year’s Bowman Draft but none the less, I think the maxim certainly holds true for the bevy of football products.  So, lets say you are like me and see the Illinois patches on Mikel Leshoure’s Patch Autos in SP Authentic for the first time and short out your keyboard with drool.  Well, take some time in replacing the keyboard because after the release of Contenders and Five Star and then subsequently National Treasures you’ll likely be able to pick one up for cheaper because the other people drooling have now turned their eyes to the new horizons.  Sidebar:  ever wonder why every card shop owner praises most all new releases?  It’s because the customers that come into their store drooling = cold hard cash.  Why what’s that?  Yes sir, I love the trapped auto and in fact I think it’s an ideal way to display USA Signatures and at that price the boxes won’t be here long…

Anyway, that aside, we all know that knowledge and action in the card world often have no correlation – so in this case, what I’m saying is that you could have been nodding all the way through the section I wrote about waiting to purchase cards but as Mr. Petty says, it’s the hardest part and after reading this you’ll go bid up the first Contenders Auto you see of a prospect you like.  It’s just another interesting wrinkle in this hobby that has more facets than any outsider would believe.  It’s also why many new releases make this list because they are selling for crazy dollars, the reason they sell for crazy dollars is crazy people and on that note, away we go.

 

1. 2010 Dillon Maples Bowman Chrome Autos

Maples

Comments: But but but where is Jeremy Lin you ask?  Well, as you’ll recall percentage increases week over week are the primary driver here at the Hot List and it becomes pretty hard to put up a big % when you start at $2,000 but more on that later.  Dillon Maples sounds like a brand of syrup, or a park that you might go to “hey honey, lets go out to an afternoon in the park, I’m thinking either Muir Woods, or the Dillon Maples, what do you think?”  You see, that may not be too far off because if you went to a baseball park seeing the Dillon Maples would be possible, perhaps in Peoria next year?  Dillon was a late round signee who fell likely due to signability concerns as he had options to play football in college.  But the Cubs, no stranger to throwing around cash whether merited or not signed Dillon and lately prospectors have started to realize that Dillon is of higher value than the average 14th rounder.  He has 2010 Bowman Chrome Autos that sold routinely at $5 until last week when they moved promptly to $15 as Dillon comes on to more people’s radars.

2. 2006-07 Steve Novak UD Exquisite Patch Autos

Novak

Comments: Steve Novak is the first Knick and first New Yorker on a list that will feature many more.  Steve had a great college career and there were many, myself included who thought of Steve as just that – a great college player who would probably be around the NBA a little bit and then find himself eating a great deal of hummus, playing somewhere in the Mediterranean.  Quite honestly, this was exactly how it was playing out until Steve found himself on the Knicks, a team that is all of a sudden much more willing to explore the depths of their bench (I wonder why….).  Steve rarely played in any games before early February and since February 6th has been averaging about 20 minutes a game and in that same span has made 30 three pointers in 10 games doing his best Robert Horry impression.  Exquisites as a result have awoken and the Gold Version pictured above sold for double this week what it did last week.

3. 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft Travis D’Arnaud Auto Rookies

Darnaud

Comments: The big hit when Bowman Chrome Draft was released in 2007, at least from an autograph perspective was Michael Burgess.  So far in his minor league career Michael has more K’s than he does hits, so that breeze your feeling in Daytona is from Michael taking batting practice.  A lesser name, in fact, more like a “couple buck” name was Travis “I will not be confused, nor called Chase” D’Arnaud.  The people I know who bought him, bought him because he was a Phillie not because they were in love with his tools.  Since then, Travis has left the Philly system but blossomed into a bonafied prospect who is at the top of a lot of prospect lists, this week’s Baseball America 100 included.  That gets you noticed and that makes your Refractor Autos double, even if they are still an affordable $35 dollars….now where did I put those Daniel Moskos cards.

4. 2004-05 Exquisite J.R. Smith Patch Autos

Smith

Comments: From the city of Brotherly Love back to the Big Apple we go.  I’ll admit, I had no idea that J.R. Smith was on the Knicks until I saw him in the same highlight that I saw Steve Novak in.  New York drivers, beware.  As you can see from his Wikipedia entry, there have been times in his career where J.R. has set scoring records regarding driving abilities and not basketball abilities.  Apparently J.R. was spending some time in China this year before signing with the Knicks but has come off the bench to provide a spark.  Again, with this spark old Exquisites come to life and J.R.’s 2004-05 Exquisites that were going for $90 move up to $140.

5. 2010-11 Jeremy Lin National Treasures Patch Autos

Lin

Comments: In the Hot List, if we had to characterize our entries into two categories they would probably be either 1 – low valued card goes up like 10x in value or 2 – high valued card increases even more to astounding levels.  Yeah, Jeremy Lin is all that in the span of three weeks.  Any time cards get featured in major outlets like ESPN or Yahoo! Sports things go crazy and Jeremy’s National Treasures did…as a result one of the recent BGS 9.5s had 6 different bidders over $21,000 – what recession you talking about fool – people are interested in these at the “very nice used car” price point and I’ll say it again, a month ago you could have had them all at $30.

6. 2010 Bowman Chrome MasonWilliams Autos

Williams

Comments:  A few weeks ago on FCB, I bought a lot of 10 Mason Williams Base Chrome Autos for $22 each – I haven’t got them, nor have I got a response to a PM (they’ve been read), nor a response to email, nor any other communication.  Oh yes, Yankees1218 is still around – heck he entered the BA Top 100 contest and everything else but I think part of the issue is that he sold Mason Williams at $22 and Mason Williams is now selling for $35 an auto – he’s just kept moving up the entire offseason.  I would like my money back but even more I would like the Mason Williams cards I bought because he’s hot enough to make the Hot List.

7. 2010-11 Paul George Absolute RPM Autos /499

George

Comments: In every basketball product last year rippers kept looking for that magical name J.Wall.  I always think of the name in that fashion because there was a guy who played basketball at the gym I worked out at who wore a J.Wall shirt every day without fail.  I thought he was maybe a little early on that and indeed, Wall’s second season in the NBA hasn’t been much different and in some ways, it’s been a little worse.  On the other hand Mr. George is now average 12 ppg, shooting better AND is in the dunk contest this year.  In baseball, chicks dig the longball, in basketball, chicks dig the dunk and if Paul has a great showing you better believe he’ll be on this list again and it will be because the autos above are selling for more than the $25 they are now.

8. Bryce Harper 2010 Bowman Chrome Autos

Harper

Comments: The category of “a card that already sells for a ton, that then proceeds to sell for more” over the past year in baseball, we could have just went ahead and called that the Bryce Harper category because that’s what it is.  Bryce’s Chrome Autos continue to heat up, in this case to over $300 as the season approaches.

9. 2011 Contenders Football SPs (we think)

Martez

Comments: Each year a part of the fun that comes with Contenders football is the speculation about who is an SP and who is not.  Honestly, eBay makes it a lot easier and people have gotten pretty good at it – this gives them the opportunity to bid up these projected SPs in anticipation of print run announcement by Panini.  This year it is guys like Aldon Smith, Martez Wilson and Jeremy Kerley.  Aldon Smith got a lot of pub when the ’49ers were making their run but guys like Wilson would have no business selling for over $100 were it not for the SP speculation.

10. 2011 Topps Five Star Aaron Rodgers Jumbo Relics

Rodgers
Comments: As I mentioned in my opening comments – it is really tempting to pull the trigger on cards you see that you desire right after release.  One of the reasons for this is the fact that you think they might not show up again – in the case of the cards above – a ball used in the Super Bowl by Aaron Rodgers, you are probably right and it’s time to snap them up – these things are going to be insane.

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – February 17th, 2012

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At this point, it feels really repetitive to talk  more about Jeremy Lin.  It’s like the Tebow story week after week (if not even more extraordinary).  From the Hot List perspective though there is a huge story here.  Last week after we posted the Hot List with Jeremy rightfully at #1 after seeing a 10x increase to $350 per National Treasures Auto /99 there were a number of posters who commented in the thread something to the effect of “you know, I’d buy Lin right now if I had some extra pennies.”  Oh, how right they were.  Lin’s cards skyrocketed even further after we posted our list last week and are now at $2,000 for a National Treasures Patch Auto /99.

Give it just a little consideration, these were routinely under $30 a couple weeks ago.   We may have found our all time spike here, at least since we’ve been writing the Hot List.  I mean, we’ve had some extraordinary pops but honestly, nothing even close to this order.  What I think is notable is that whenever huge spikes like this happen it all has to come together at once – big market, huge games, prior unknown, huge fan base – both hear and abroad and a very inspiring story, yup – got all that and some more too.

So once again, Jeremy tops this week’s list.

 

1. 2010-11 Jeremy Lin Patch Auto RC /99

Lin

Comments: I really just wrote a much longer commentary in the introduction piece of this article so go read that and then consider that Jeremy now sells for significantly more than John Wall who was by far and away the #1 guy when this product released.

2. Gary Carter Pack Pulled Autographs

Carter

Comments: It’s kind of awkward writing about price spikes of guys who have passed.  Once the market realizes no more autos will be signed, prices go up and in the case of guys like Carter, they go up a lot, like 300%.  Still sad.

3. Matt Flynn 2008 Topps Chrome Auto

Flynn

Comments: Since I live in Kansas City, I hear a great deal about Matt Cassell, a guy who got an opportunity, in an awesome system, put up some huge numbers and wound up getting a really nice free agent contract out of it.  Since then, Cassell has struggled to meet expectations and there has been a great deal of speculation about whether it was him producing in New England or just the system he was in – one has to wonder if there is some of the same hesitation with Matt Flynn but none the less, he’s a hot free agent.  His Chrome Auto rookies are up to almost $50 from the prior weeks $35.

4. Trevor Bauer 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto

Bauer

Comments: Smart prospectors know to buy nothing upon the release of the product right?  I mean, c’mon, wait for it to cool down before you do your buying as people overpay right away.  Or not, it seems that this year if you had loaded up on names like Nimmo, Lindor, Bauer and Starling you’d already be in a profit position with potential more to come.  Bauer stuff sold in the mid-$30s initially, $40 last week and one Chrome Auto hit $56 this week.

5. Bryce Harper 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto

Harper

Comments: As baseball season creeps up on us, people are starting to think about all the big names, including Bryce’s.  Is it possible Bryce could wind up with a starting outfield spot?  I guess so, maybe not probable but possible and just in the inclusion of his name on that Opening Day lineup card would cause prices to go crazy.  Some are betting on this and already Harper autos are now in the $275 range and previously more in the $225 range.  With as many autos as Harper has on the market, it presents an opportunity to be patient and make sure your buy is in the lower part of the range – this is the beauty of multiple issues.

6. Cam Newton 2011 SP Authentic Rare Autos

Newton

Comments: Card producers must have absolutely loved this years rookie class in football.  Even in today’s modern era, the NFL is still the hardest sport to have an impact in as a rookie it seems.  However, that didn’t stop Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and a host of others from making their presence felt on the field last fall and as a result boy do products sell.  It’s much easier to swallow the cost of an SP Authentic box when you could pull a Cam Newton autograph /25 that sells for four figures and that’s exactly what is happening in this year’s SP Authentic.  Cam stuff continues to sell very very well.

Now, with only NBA Basketball going on right now…there’s not a lot of Hot List fodder, so lets play some Hot List potpourri, a variety of observations I’ve had while researching this week’s list.

How to screw up a good thing:

Each and every year football collectors await the release of Contenders – it is a standard in the football community.  In the past couple years, Panini has upped it’s game by using on-card autographs for many of the more desired players.  So why would you create a design that makes an 0n-card look like a sticker and is just generally ugly, I truly do not get it.  Last year’s design was simple, not outstanding but not bad either and this year, you go off and do this?

How to inadvertently screw up and make a good thing:

“Anderw” Luck Leaf Prismatic Error cards /39 are back over $300 again, all due to board members catching a spelling error.  Totally unintended but this provides publicity (yes, both good and bad) for the Leaf brand and per the sell sheet released for this product, there are more Luck cards to come from Leaf in a variety of prismatic flavors – don’t expect to pick one of those up for cheap.

How to admit when you’ve screwed up, that’s a good thing:

If you haven’t been listening to the FCB podcast, you’re missing out.  Lots of good hobby information and some laughs along the way.  Brian Gray was recently interviewed and mentioned his experiences with Razor in 2008 and lots of lessons learned.  As everyone knows, nothing has sparked more opinions on FCB than Razor and Leaf but to hear a CEO talk about lessons of the past and incorporation of them into future products is a good thing any way you slice it.

How to make a good thing out of an otherwise screwed up situation:

I’m a cold hard capitalist, I want as many competitors in the market competing for my consumer dollar as possible, it means I get better product and more value for less money.  So therefore, all the exclusivity regarding professional sports licenses simply doesn’t suit me.  However, Upper Deck has taken their college license and made lemonade and lemonade when a proper mixture of sweet and sour tastes pretty darn good.  Judging by sales prices of last year’s Exquisites and this year’s SP Authentics, collectors are liking the current mix Upper Deck has going on in football.

Something previously good, now screwed up:

Just a couple years ago, when I started writing this list, I was fairly frequently researching base chrome cards.  However, the fact that every prospect of any note now has a base card and an autograph chrome card has really taken a lot of the value out of those Bowman products and its too bad.  Opening packs of 2006 Bowman Chrome knowing that there were multiple base cards that could be pulled that would cover the cost of your pack was a lot of fun, no longer.

 

Until next week…

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – February 10th 2012 Edition

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If you read the thread each week where I ask for suggestions for the Hot List, then you noticed that much of the debate this week, particularly between three moderators (jcmint, myself and cgilmo), was over the beauty, or crapsicle (thanks for that new one, Joe) nature of 2011 SP Authentic football patches.  By the way, if you don’t read the thread, shame on you AND you are eventually going to miss out on the fact that someone will mention a card in your commons is scalding hot – where it will sit until it cools off. But anyway, back to the question regarding the beauty of the 2011 SP Authentic cards.  Honestly, as with a collectors opinion on any card, it is very much a personal question for each buyer to answer themself, sure eBay may answer it from a total hobby standpoint but you can still make your own determination.

All that said, there is a bigger point to be made here, just the fact that debating Upper Deck at this time is interesting.  Throughout the ’90s collectors had brand upon brand upon brand to choose from.  Topps, Donruss, Fleer, Upper Deck and all the deviations thereof brought oodles of sets to market each year.  Recently, in most of the major sports, the licenses to use big league logos have increased in price and the licensees have therefore decreased.  One casualty of this from the football perspective was Upper Deck and considering the impact of the SP Authentic and Exquisite sets each year, that was a big deal.  As the licenses faded, many of us pondered the fate of these non-licensed companies and some may have thought it was a “one foot in the grave” type of situation.  However, a couple of years removed from the last licensed SP Authentic set, here we are discussing the release of 2011 SP Authentic football and in a few months, we’ll probably talk about Leaf Metal Draft and Andrew Luck autographs and all the rest – all this to say, it seems that the licensing isn’t quite as big of a deal as we may have thought.  So what does that really mean at the end of the day for Joe Collector?  It means that he still has many selections from which to buy and it also means that the card manufacturer has an opportunity to increase value in their product and still increase their margin without incurring another dollar of cost (thanks to Brian Gray for pointing this out on the FCB podcast) – please note I said opportunity, it is no done deal.

Now speaking of licensing – in the basketball world only Panini has one and in the baseball world it is only Topps.  This can create some downside for collectors.  Think a little harder – this means that when Panini decides not to produce any basketball cards this year (at least so far) that collectors have nothing new to buy and just like the raccoon who won’t let go of the shiny piece of tinfoil in the trap, we hobbyists love the new and different and it just isn’t there in basketball.  I think as a result of this, players who are experiencing breakout seasons in their 2nd, 3rd, 4th or whatever year are going to see a bigger spike as collectors look for something to get excited about.  And so after all that, you finally have my transition to #1 on the Hot List.

 

1. 2010-11 Jeremy Lin Patch Auto RC /99

Lin

Comments: Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lin is the auto patch you pull from National Treasures and mutter some curse under your breath, he’s not John Wall, he’s not Demarcus Cousins, he’s not really anyone to you expect a thorn in your case breaking side.  However, Jeremy turned from thorn into rose in record time as he began lighting it up for the Knicks last week.  This brings up another point, although it seems like we have to reach back to the Patrick Ewing, Derek Harper, John Starks days to remember when the Knicks were good, they are still a very big name in the basketball world.  New York is a very big name in any sports world no matter how crummy that team might be – and therefore, they too are still looking for something to get excited about and they have found Jeremy Lin.  Jeremy’s National Treasures Patch Autos literally went from $25 to $300 plus overnight and those collectors who were too lazy to sell when they pulled the cards are sure cashing in now.

2. Curtis Martin 1995 Signature Rookies

Martin

Comments: I want to point out two amazing things for number two on the Hot List.  First, it is amazing how many truly great running backs there have been in the NFL – I mean guys who have lasted and will be remembered for decades – the Jim Browns, Walter Paytons, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smiths of the world, there just aren’t that many when you consider how many played the game.  Amazing thing number two – Curtis Martin is the 4th leading rusher in NFL history and he’s already faded from the consciousness of many avid football fans.  His election to the Hall of Fame this week brought him back to the front of many folks minds and therefore his cards as well.  His signature auto rookies were at one point available under $10 bucks and hopped up to $15 this week after his election was announced.

3. 2011 Panini National Sets – Kyrie Irving

Irving

Comments: So I pretty much took two spots off before continuing my rant about Panini not making many basketball cards lately.  I’m kidding, that horse is so dead it isn’t suitable for the glue factory anymore but Kyrie Irving does have one card out.  It’s the card that Panini included in their National Set along with Derrick Williams and a few others.  In a normal year, it would be worth jack squat, in this turned upside down year, these sets are now going for $80 and that’s up from $60 last week and $45 the week before.

4. Eli Manning 2004 Topps Chrome Refractors

Eli
Comments: The last couple weeks, the Hot List feature some Tom Brady rookie refractors that sold for $500, earlier this year we were talking about Aaron Rodgers Topps Chrome Refractors that were selling over over $200 each, Drew Brees 2001 Topps Chrome Refractors also sold for over the $100 mark this year.  I guess the lesson to be learned here is that if you really believe in Cam Newton as the next huge thing in NFL quarterbacks then his refractor prices shouldn’t scare you where they are right now.  But this isn’t about Cam, it’s about the now two time Super Bowl winning Eli Manning whose own refractors went from $75 to $125 this past week after he bettered his big brother in Super Bowl wins.

5. Paul George 2010-11 Panini Absolute Auto /299

George

Comments: First name, first name – a classic example, oh wait, yeah so – In his second year, Paul’s stats are up pretty much across the board.  He’s shooting more accurately, scoring more often and even doing the other things like rebounding and passing.  Collectors and fans alike are starting to take more notice of Paul and his rookie year autos like Absolute are creeping up, moving from $10-$12 up to $16-$20 this year and even though they like what he’s doing now, Pacers fans continue to be excited by Paul’s potential.

6. Nolan Arenado 2010 Bowman Chrome Autos

Arenado

Comments:Last week in this spot, we had Bubba Starling – Bubba has certainly had an explosion in prices but it has been over a few months time frame.  This week, we feature another player who has just kept rising to get to the point that he’s at now – Refractor Autos selling for $63, a new high up from $53.  However, aside from their rise up in prices and proficiency with the bat, Nolan and Bubba are different.  Bubba was one of the names in 2011 Bowman Draft, collectors on the other hand were ripping 2010 Bowman w/Chrome looking for Donovan Tate Autos, Strasburg Autos and Base Cards, Bryce Harper USAs and so many other names, Nolan was an after thought.  After though no longer, this AFL MVP’s cards continue to parallel his climb on many prospect ranking lists.

7. 2011 SP Authentic Patch Autos

Newton

Comments:  Ah, the subject of the earlier debate – on the boards that is, it appears that there isn’t much debate on eBay as a card /299 like the Newton above is selling for $500 plus right out of the gate.  However, the bigger question is what do you think?  Post in the comments whether you consider it good, bad or ugly and why and someone will win a random slot in FCB’s Contenders giveaway.

8. Christian Yelich 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Yelich

Comments: Read all the things I said above about Nolan Arenado and the excitement or lack thereof when you pulled an auto.  In this case, you wanted to see Manny Machado or Jameson Tallion and instead you got Christian, a guy with a last name that sounds like some Eastern European delicacy.  But as it so often goes, it just takes a while for some guys and some winters later they start showing up higher and higher on prospect lists and all of a sudden, a Yelich sounds somewhat more appetizing – and Chrome Autos for the first time ever exceed $20 and head towards $25.

9. Mason Williams 2011 Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor Autos /150

Williams

Comments: It always seem like each winter, one Yankee really gets hot.  It was Jesus Montero a couple years ago, Gary Sanchez last year and now this year it seems like it is going to be Mason Williams whose Blue Refractor Autos moved over $90 this week.

10. 2012 Topps Gold Standard GU Patch Autos /10

Topps

Comments: A week ago, I read a question posed on the boards, something to the effect of “when do you think the high-end GU market will blow up?”  If you recall, when UD first started doing GU in the mid-90s normal jersey swatches sold for huge money and as you might expect, the bottom fell out of that market.  Then there were patches and to a large degree, that market too has tanked.  The one GU market that continues to go strong is the vintage GU market particularly as it relates to patches.  Here’s the thing – to get a vintage GU Patch you have to get a patch of someone who played in an earlier time, with earlier technology and therefore lots less “patchworthy” material.  I just don’t see that market going away any time soon and I think cards like the Ernie Banks above make my point – the Gold Standard Patch Autos /10 are selling for huge money!