Tag Archives: Felix Hernandez

FCB Weekly Hot List – August 17th 2012 Edition

Posted on by

I’m that guy.  I’m that guy that repeatedly says “oh its just preseason, it doesn’t really matter.”  I’m that guy that advocates for my favorite players to be on the field as little as possible during the preseason to avoid injury.  I’m that guy that waves dismissively at losses in the preseason, because it’s just that.  I’m that guy that chuckles as I listen to the AM radio guys analyze the daylights out of the third stringer playing tight end from Central Northwestern Arkansas State and Technical College to come to to the conclusion of “we understand what the GM might have seen here, we see it too.”  Only to have him cut the next day in the first wave of roster cuts.  I’m that guy that laughs when I heard John Gruden trotting out his first man crush of the season.

I’m also that guy that has spent far too many hours thinking about the results of my fantasy auction since it occurred last weekend.  I’m also that guy that at the first sign of a positive offensive play from the Chargers sits up in hopeful expectation.  I’m that guy that exclaims “he’s back!” after Antonio Gates (who should not be on the field in the preseason) makes a TD catch. I’m that guy that yells “steal of the draft” after Julio Jones makes a fairly ordinary catch against the Bengals.  I’m the guy that stopped to watch Bruce Gradkowski running down field as I was on the way to the kitchen for a refill.  I’m the guy that listens to the AM radio station, watches the ESPN analysis and creates his own analysis in the meantime with his friends.  I’m the guy that extrapolates that preseason performance into prospecting football cards.

To some degree, whether it’s with baseball, football, basketball, hockey, cricket, synchronized diving, rhythm gymnastics or the equestrian events, we are all that guy (used in a completely non-gender defining sense) aren’t we?  All this came to mind as I was thinking about the repeated “preseason doesn’t matter” conversations that I’ve had with many only to shortly be followed by “my word, did you see that catch Julio made though, I mean, I know preseason doesn’t matter like we were just talking about but the guy is in beast mode, early.”

Lets just face facts, those of us who are football fans, all the way from moderates to straight up junkies are ready for the season to begin and in the absence of a full meal, we’ll eat all the crummy appetizers we can get our hands on.

This has certainly manifested itself in the card world as well, the base Topps release for this football season is on fire.  Base Topps is not something that typically lights the world on fire but Topps did a lot of these subsets just right and you have the strong hunger for anything and all things football as I referenced above and thus away we go.

A couple months from now, we can come back and revisit this post and agree that indeed, the preseason doesn’t matter but in the meantime, lets just be honest with ourselves and enjoy it.

1. Aroldis Chapman 2011 Bowman Chrome Autos

Aroldis

Comments: Whether it’s WHIP, K per 9, ERA or pretty much any other statistic you could create for a power pitcher you can go ahead and throw the previous records out the window.  The season Aroldis is having as a reliever is truly unparalleled because he’s truly unhittable.  He’s been mentioned numerous times recently as it relates to possible Cy Young candidacy and a week ago, patience could get you a 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto under $15, this week you are going to have difficulty finding one under $35.  On a side note, Yahoo! Sports writing staff is silently sending their own little S.O.S. (we are out of ideas!) as headlines like “Melky Cabrera is not the first Giants lefthander to have issues with steroids” and excessive use of the words “Honey Badger” are pervasive on the website.


2. Manny Machado 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Machado

Comments: Most of the time, products come out with a certain player that’s selling extremely well and a couple years later, the list from top to bottom has changed and it’s some other guy that’s selling really well.  Almost without exception though as it pertains to 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft Manny Machado has led wire to wire and his call up and subsequent hot streak last week cemented that place as cards like Gold Refractor Autos in 9.5 form (yes, that’s high-end) doubled from $500 to $1,000.  This list is based on percentages so often the real high end items don’t make it but as far as a dollar pop in a week goes, that’s about as good as it gets folks.

3. Felix Hernandez 2004 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Felix

Comments: If you get a chance to actually watch Felix Hernandez pitch a ball game, it’s an opportunity you shouldn’t miss.  Felix is in Seattle, meaning that he’s often pitching after many are “night night” and he plays baseball in a town better known for coffee and the legacy of Shawn Kemp.  Additionally, the Mariners haven’t exactly been the class of the A.L. since Felix has been around, so he tends not to run up crazy sorts of win totals, thus lowering the amount you may hear about him.  However, the man has stuff and after this week we find out, he has perfect game stuff and that really surprises people a whole lot less than when they hear that Dallas Braden threw a no hitter.  Flashing back to an old Sports Center segment, “did you know” that up till this year there have been 20 perfect games in the history of baseball, roughly once every 6 years and there have been three this year.  This has certainly provided some nice fodder for the hot list and Felix is no different, prices went from $65 to $115 on chrome autos this week.

4. 2012 Topps Mini Exclusives

Mini

Comments: One of the notable things that has happened at the National in recent years is the introduction of National exclusive products.  This year Topps rolled out a set of “mini exclusive” cards that feature 661 subjects and lots of low #’d inserts and autographs.  This set is only available on topps.com and with how these things are selling my guess is it won’t be available a whole lot longer.  Autographs, plates, golds /61 and blacks /5 are selling like crazy from this product.

5. Aaron Hicks 2011 Bowman Chrome Autos

hick

Comments: Aaron was the guy I went all in on in the 2008 Razor products.  He was the 5 tool high school player who was also unbelievably good at golf so I decided to dump some money into him.  4 years later, we are still waiting but Aaron is still just 23 and having a much better season at AA this year than in years past and his chrome autos have moved from $5 to nearly $10 in the past week.

6. Joc Pederson 2012 Bowman Chrome Autos

Pederson

Comments: I see an awful lot of cards because I run the FCB group sub and one guy I have seen repeatedly because he’s been subbed time and time again by a particular member is Joc Pederson.  In spite of this, I haven’t bothered to look up what Joc has actually done and who he is but this time I looked him up.  Joc has 4 HRs and 15 hits over his last 10 games and is a young OF for the Dodgers.  This is enough to cause autos to move from $5 to $12ish.

7. Tyler Cloyd 2011 Elite Extra Edition Autos

Cloyd

Comments: 25 year olds playing in the minors are a rarity on the Hot List but every once in a while  a guy who is further advanced in age makes the list because his performance is too spectacular to overlook.  That’s where we’ve gotten with Tyler Cloyd who is 15-1 with a 2.13 ERA this year in time in both AA and AAA.  In spite of the fact that he doesn’t blow your mind stat wise, Tyle clearly knows how to pitch and you’d have to think so he’d be doing just that in a Phillies uniform soon.  Tyler’s Elite Autos moved from $9 to $15 this week.

8. 2012 Topps Football Tall Boy Autos

Tall Boy

Comments: As I mentioned in my opening remarks, 2012 Topps Football has been a big hit.  Everything from the Griffin and Luck base cards that are selling for more than $5 per, to the hard to pull Tall Boy autos of the rookie players.  Collectors absolutely love reprints of classic sets and it’s no different here in 2012 Topps football.  Even players like Jarius Wright who typically don’t garner a whole lot of interest are getting bought just because they are a part of this set.

9. Joe Panik 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor Autos

Panik

Comments: Gas Panik!  Ok, sorry, a lame reference to a band that’s not even together anymore but maybe there are those believe that maybe, just maybe Joe is going to be the one that saves me.  If you haven’t gotten the drift yet you probably didn’t do much radio listening during the ’90s and for that, shame on you.  This is about Joe Panik isn’t it?  As often happens in the CAL League Joe is in the midst of a hot streak that has him batting over .400 for 10 games.  This is enough to get him noticed and get Refractor Autos to a place where they sell raw this week for what they sold for in 9.5 form last week.

And one more item…

Just a touch more on the Hot List nomination thread, which I think is one of the best threads on the board every week.  You must remember that although we try to be very fair in evaluating week to week prices, there is some deal of subjectivity here.  The subjectivity exists to serve as a moderator for other weird things that might happen in the market.  For instance, if there’s an unusually low sale of a Chrome Auto last week and an unusually high BIN hit this week, we have to look at a broader trend to determine if we are talking about a truly hot player, or just a market anomaly.  Just something to keep in mind.

 


 

 

 

 

ESPN’s Top 10 from a Cardboard Perspective

Posted on by

The season is under way, and ESPN recently came out with their list of the top 500 players in baseball. Zeroing in on the Top 10, one can debate the merits of the selection and order. Undoubtedly though, the list includes ten of the best players in baseball, and due to their popularity, these players offer many collecting options. Here I’ll discuss a bit about their rookie cards in general and, specifically, their most popular rookie autograph releases:

1. Albert Pujols: Pujols broke into the Majors in 2001 and was the rare player who did not have a rookie card before he reached the “bigs.” This (along with Ichiro’s RC season) made for some pretty exciting times in the hobby, and the card companies capitalized releasing a huge variety of rookie, rookie autograph, and insert cards of the slugger. It was also the first time I recall a company put a redemption into a product without saying what it was for. (Five redemptions cards for RC’s were inserted in Fleer Premium for unnamed rookie cards, one of which was later revealed to be Pujols.) The “Holy Grail” of all Pujols rookie cards (and the “Holy Grail” for many modern collectors) is the 2001 Bowman Chrome Albert Pujols RC Autograph /500. Cost of Chrome RC Auto: recent BGS 9s have sold in the $4000–$5000 range.

2. Roy Halladay: Halladay’s rookie cards stem from 1997, and offerings include Bowman, Bowman Chrome, and Bowman’s Best. His Bowman Chrome RC card is a popular one amongst collectors; though his most highly regarded first-year cards are likely his Bowman Autographs. While they are inserts, they’ve been accepted by collectors much like any other rookie autograph and command serious prices. The card comes in three versions: blue ink, black ink (which sometimes looks red if it is faded), and gold ink. Estimates of the gold ink version are as low as 50–100 copies. They are also extremely condition sensitive with black-back borders, and in decent condition they command a nice premium. Price of a Bowman Auto: $175–$225 while a BGS 9 got $700. (Note that the price on raw copies is way down from where it has been over the last year or two.)

3. Miguel Cabrera: Cabrera is another guy with very few options. His rookie cards are from 2000 and are limited to Topps Traded and Topps Chrome Traded—both boxed sets. Thankfully for rookie autograph collectors, Topps Traded offered an autographed option—a card that has been extremely popular since Cabrera captured the attention of the hobby during the 2003 playoffs as a 20 year old. The Topps Traded autograph is also condition sensitive as the boxed sets led to many dinged corners. The card was also one that was commonly trimmed, so buying graded is recommended. 8.5s often net a premium over raw. Price on 2000 Topps Traded Auto: $400+ for raw; $600+ for BGS 9, though a recent copy went for $844 indicating that his hot start and pairing with Prince Fielder may lead to increased hobby interest.

4. Justin Verlander: Verlander, like Pujols, has a wide array of rookie cards and autographs, and like Pujols his most popular is his Bowman Chrome Autograph. Unlike Pujols though, his card is not limited to 500 copies. By 2005 Bowman Chrome had all sorts of parallels, so collectors who are looking for Chrome can shoot for the parallel that best fits their collection or budget. Because Verlander has so many rookie autographs, there is one that fits most price ranges. Even after his MVP season rookie autographs can be found for $30–$40. Price for a Bowman Chrome RC Auto: $100-$120.

5. Felix Hernandez: King Felix took the Majors by storm as a 19 year old in 2005, but collectors had already been picking his cards up since 2004. He had a variety of cards produced all by Topps and two rookie autographs: Bowman Chrome and Bowman’s Best. His Chrome card has been extremely popular for years. As the final release before Chrome introduced 1/1s and began upping the number of parallels, his best may very well be his gold refractor autograph, a tough card, but one that can be found with some patience (and an open wallet.) Price for a Bowman Chrome Auto: $75–$100.

6. Ryan Braun: The 2011 MVP does not have a huge number of rookie cards to choose from, but he has some very low-end releases as well as a whole bunch of nice rookie autographs. His most popular rookie autograph is his Bowman Chrome Autograph (anyone sensing a trend), but he also has a Bowman Sterling option and a Bowman Heritage Auto. (The red auto parallel /51 is in my opinion one of the underrated cards available. It is basically as rare as a gold refractor and, when found, costs a small fraction of the price.) Price of a Bowman Chrome Auto: $110–$130.

7. Clayton Kershaw: Another one whose Chrome Rookie autograph dominates the discussion, last year’s Cy Young Award winner has never posted an ERA above 3. Kershaw is also the first (and only one) on the list that has actually two Bowman Chrome autographs. While his 2006 version is the most popular, his 2008 version is a nice looking on-card autograph at a pretty reasonable price point. His 2006 BC Auto can be had in the $65–$80 range. (Interestingly his Xfractors have tended to be very cheap relative to other parallels.)

8. Troy Tulowitzki: A rare star over the last few years that does not have a Bowman Chrome RC Autograph, his only rookie autograph stems from the fairly obscure Topps Rookie Cup. (Tulowitzki’s Bowman Chrome cards are still very popular and collectible.) While the Rookie Cup cards are sticker autos, they do have a nice large picture of Troy and a bevy of parallels to satisfy rainbow collectors and those looking for more high-end options. The base version of the Topps Rookie Cup Auto can be had in the $55–$70 range.

9. Tim Lincecum: Owner of tw0 Cy Young Awards and featured on a ton of cards in 2007 (a search for Lincecum (2007, 07) nets over 600 results), his most popular offering (like so many others on the list) is his Bowman Chrome Autograph and parallels. Rare Lincecum Chrome parallels sell for as most as almost anyone who has ever had a Chrome release; though he has many other rookie autographs available—including a great looking Exquisite RC Auto /199. Chrome RC Autos sell for around $150, while the Exquisite card can be had for a little less than that.

10. Robinson Cano: While Cano had a wide variety of rookie cards produced in 2003, the rarer stuff sells really well. A Bowman Chrome Refractor BGS 10 recently sold for over $500! Raw copies of his refractor and Xfractor can run you $150 or so, so it’s not just the BGS graded ones. A relatively young star playing under the biggest spotlight in baseball can do that to a player. Cano also has just a single rookie year autograph: an insert in Bowman Heritage. It’s a condition sensitive card, and the print does not appear to be all that high as there are rarely more than a few copies on eBay at a time.