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FCB Prospect Hot List, Issue #1

Greetings, fellow prospectors.

Every other week, I will be releasing my list of baseball prospects who are either receiving a significant amount of hype, have had excellent performances recently, or both.

Recently, I created a “prototype” version of a Hot List, which you can find here. Afterwards, FCB owner Chris Gilmore asked if I could make this a bi-weekly column to supplement the FCB weekly Hot List. Unlike that list, this will cover baseball prospects exclusively.

It’s already a busy time of year where prospects are concerned, and Spring Training hasn’t even started yet.

Bottom line – the anticipation and hype are what’s fueling prices right now. In addition, the college baseball season began this past weekend, for those who prospect amateur players. And finally, there’s Baseball America’s annual Top 100 prospects list, which fans the flame even higher where prospect card values are concerned.

As a bonus, I will also include a “sleeper” on each list, i.e., a prospect whose card values have yet to reach their potential, but have the possibility to do so.

1) Oscar Taveras. There really is no serious competition right now for the top spot. The Cards’ GM compared Taveras’ hitting skills to that of Albert Pujols recently, and people are pouncing all over his cards. His base autographed Bowman Chromes are now fetching as much as $147 each, and his Refractor autos are getting up to $275.

2) Dylan Bundy. If Taveras is the top hitting prospect where card values are concerned, Bundy is the top pitcher. People are speculating as to whether or not this ace-in-waiting could break camp with the O’s, and his cards are steadily increasing. A base Chrome auto just sold for triple digits.

3) Xander Bogaerts. Being a great hitting prospect is a good thing. Being a power hitter helps his stock even more. And playing for the Red Sox’s organization just blows up his cards even further. A base Chrome just brought in $100, and a Blue Refractor auto brought over $250 recently, up from $175.

4) Jurickson Profar. While it’s looking increasingly likely he’ll start the year in AAA, the fact he topped Keith Law’s, Jonathan Mayo’s and Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects lists means his cards won’t be slowing down anytime soon. A Refractor auto sold for $190 recently.

5) Zack Wheeler. The top pitching prospect in the Mets’ system by far, like Bundy his cards are also steadily increasing, as a base Chrome auto sold for $70.

6) Christian Yelich. Another product of the recently released Top 100 lists, his hitting ability is finally being recognized where values are concerned. A lot of two of his base Chrome autos sold for $85 recently.

7) Gerrit Cole. He has arguably the top velocity in the minors, and isn’t far from Pittsburgh. People are already anticipating him becoming the ace they’ve sorely needed, as a Blue Refractor auto sold for $150 recently, up from the $105-125 range.

8) Austin Meadows. It’s never too early to speculate on potential 5-tool prospects, and he fits the bill. Many still don’t realize his base Chrome USA autos are in shorter supply than his Refractor autos, which are numbered to 199. One just sold for $90, and if the hype continues, they won’t be under $100 for long. In addition, a Purple Refractor auto sold for over $730.

My Weekly Sleeper – Shelby Miller. No, he’s obviously not a sleeper as a prospect, but the fact that Chris Carpenter won’t be pitching again anytime soon opens the door for him to win a rotation spot. You can still find his base Chrome autos in the $20-$25 range (as of now). Get ‘em while you can.

FCB Weekly Hot List – September 21st 2012 Edition

One of the really enjoyable things about writing a list like this is the cyclical nature of it.  At some points in the year it’s football heavy, often baseball heavy, sometimes more basketball than others (that is if rookie cards came out last year grumble grumble sigh) and in amongst that you have a sprinkling of hockey, magic cards, celebrity autos (remember how hot those Michael Phelps autos got??!!?) and so much more.  Heck, this summer we had lists that were Olympics heavy.

As a writer, this a beautiful thing because I already tire out jokes and because of the fact that this particular list is football heavy you don’t have to hear me repeat things like “David the Price is Right”, Nelson “Cruz Missile”, “Ryan Brauny Paper Towels”, “Jurickson’s been good profar” and Jemile and Rickie I could go on for Weeks.  Aaaaand there I went and did it to you anyway.

So don’t be one of those “that sport isn’t for me collectors.”  Carpe diem!  Variety is the spice of life!  Or for the simpletons out there like me, Taste the Rainbow (remember that Skittles commercial where the kid whispered it in the creepy voice yeah…).  This is your time to expand your horizons and least follow another sport nominally through this list.

Outside of making you a well-rounded sports fan and card collector, this does something else for you.  It keeps things more interesting than they may already be.  One of the downsides of collecting is those major dead spots that happen in every year.  It’s like dribbling a basketball on a floor and hitting a dead spot.  The ball doesn’t pop back up to you and you wind up standing there, looking at the floor humming the tune to “Ironic” or some other angry girl anthem by Alanis Morrisette.  On that rather strange note, lets get to it.

 

1. 2009 UD Exquisite Andre Brown Auto Patches /99

Brown

Comments: I think I used the Wally Pipp/Lou Gehrig analogy last week and that probably was my last punch on that ten punch card.  However, lets be honest many cards that make that list are there because a guy played well in the stead of the guy who got injured in front of them. Lou Gehrig is the classic example of this but the jury is still out in New York regarding if Andre Brown will have the impact on the Giants franchise that Lou Gehrig had on the Yankees.  Or not, he won’t, there that’s settled.  However, something that is unsettled should be you as you run towards your “dead hits” box to look for those Andre Brown autos that you pulled in 2009 and swore as you flipped them into the box.  Exquisites for example are selling for over 5 times what they were last week as they moved from $15 to $75 this week.

2. Ramses Barden 2009 Autos

Barden

Comments: Ramses has made the list, he was played by Yul Brenner opposite Mr. Heston – oh wait, not pharoah!  This Ramses has nothing to do with the movie classic, nor does he have any people to let go but what he did do was have the best game of his life on Thursday Night football in prime time (says this angry owner of many Rueben Randle cards).  Eli looks like he’s ready to put up another stellar season and with Hakeem Nicks injured seemingly all the time Ramses may benefit.  BINs were popping Thursday night with most cards doubling or tripling in price.

3. Michael Crabtree 2009 Rookie Autos

Crabtree

Comments: It’s the class of 2009 this week and it’s also hammer time, right?  I mean seriously why don’t we have a dual auto of Crabtree and Hammer yet?  I’m giving out this idea for free.  Michael Crabtree was a beast at Texas Tech but hasn’t really had a breakout season in the NFL yet.  So of course that season would be when the Niners go out and acquire Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in the offseason right?  Right.  Crabtree has been thrown to a lot already this season by another person who will grace this list and being on arguably the best team in the league through the first two weeks doesn’t hurt either.  Autos like the Topps above have moved up nearly 100% in the past week.

4. Alex Smith 2004 Contenders Autos

smith

Comments: Label him what you want: “Game Manager” “just ok” or some other mediocre phrase, it doesn’t matter.  The 49ers are absolute annihilating the competition this season and Alex is at the helm and making plays.  Quarterbacks who win lots of games in the NFL have cards that sell for lots of money and Alex is resurrecting the hype that followed him into the NFL as the #1 pick and that is NOT an easy thing to do.  A buy it now was just hit on a contenders for $250, which is the new high but they routinely sold this week for $175 as compared to $115 last week.

5. C.J Spiller 2010 Contenders Autos

Spiller

Comments: Spiller was one of those guys that you had to wonder if he was going to translate to the NFL.  However, it seems like recently a lot of the traditional “they will or will not translate to the NFL” things have gone out the window.  You have tailbacks like Darren Sproles and Jacquizz Rodgers, running QBs, super athletic tight ends and I could go on.  If you have the talent, they will find a place and scheme for you.  Spiller, like Brown earlier got his break because Fred Jackson went out and he’s made the most of it (playing against the Chiefs certainly helps).  His cards have now surpassed the levels they sold when he was a rookie and with Contenders at $45 they are up 50% over last week.

6. Dylan Bundy 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Bundy

Comments: It’s ok, you can wipe the tears away now, here’s some baseball.  2011 Bowman Chrome Draft is shaping up to be an absurd autograph checklist and at the head of it is Dylan Bundy who after his call up had Autographs hit $80 up from $60 last week.  The guy started the year in low class A, unreal.

7. Trent Richardson 2012 Rookie Autographs

Trent

Comments: I’ve talked to Chris Gilmore a great deal about football over time and Trent Richardson has more than once been a topic of conversation.  Except that his last name is never mentioned, it’s just Trent.  Like the guy you hang out and have a beer with, they are that close.  There must have been a lot of loud yells, or is it hollers?  From Alabama on Sunday because Trent had a great game for the Browns and his cards immediately took a 50% leap because of it.  In a related story Brandon Weeden was a different QB and you have to think that something is correlated there…

8. Lamar Miller 2012 Finest Autos

Miller
Comments: Lamar was a guy who a lot of fans were high on as a late round sleeper pick.  It was said that he had the skills to go much earlier – who really knows.  In spite of this, he was admittedly pretty underwhelming in the preseason and many card owners like myself had on our sad faces.  That is until Lamar Miller followed the stellar Reggie Bush into the game last Sunday and racked up some yards and a touchdown.  This caused Lamar’s autos like Finest to move up and get more bids immediately.

9. Reggie Bush 2006 SP Authentic Patch Autos

Bush

Comments: Speaking of Reggie Bush, I mean someone make sense of this for me.  The guy is an absolute rock star coming out of USC, has little success with the Saints (who have absolutely adored the pass catching back Darren Sproles), goes to a much lesser team in Miami and has a career year.  And oh by the way, he had a career game last week.   Speaking of resurrecting the hype, Reggie will have to have some more big games to truly see anything close to the prices he used to but already cards are moving like the SP Authentic pictured above.

10. Robert Griffin III Autos

Griffin

Comments: Already we are running out of superlatives for this guy but lets just say this, the fact that autograph sales above $500 for lower #’d cards are routine says quite enough to those of us who collect cards.

11. 2011-12 UD Fleer Retro

Retro

Comments: On the routine absurd sales front – the basketball market was dying for new product and fleer retro gave them a nice high end one.  Anything with Michael Jordan’s face on it sells for $100s of dollars and that is truly absurd.

 

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – May 11th 2012 Edition

A big part of the reason I initially got into baseball cards was statistics, I loved watching the leader boards in all the categories, projecting what the year would look like and doing analysis of any and every kind.  Now, I’m no leatherman (check his posts for lots of good nuggets) but still, I enjoyed the backs of the cards as much as the front.  This week, Josh Hamilton had quite the statistical night when he went 5 for 5 with 4 HRs and a double – 18 total bases and 8 RBIs.  This of course caused me to look up Josh Hamilton on Yahoo! Sports and confirm what I had suspected – his amazing night boosted him even further into the lead in all of the AL Triple Crown categories.  Saying Josh Hamilton is having a good year is similar to saying that the sun is somewhat warm to the touch and that Chris Gilmore has a slight southern accent.  It’s a bit of an understatement at this juncture.

That said, what’s even more interesting about Hamilton is the story that goes with his somewhat surreal life.  Baseball stardom as a young person, descent into abject drug and alcohol addiction and subsequent reclamation of stardom.  Josh’s unreal first month of the season, in tandem with unreal life story I think point out something that’s very unique to the sport of baseball.  Players can truly come out of (or come back from) nowhere to make it back to the top of the game.  It’s not that the NFL doesn’t have some compelling stories – Tom Brady was a 7th round draft pick and is now considered one of the best in the game.  But c’mon the guy was a star at Michigan, he was drafted and well known before the draft.  You take your Tom Brady and I’ll counter with Mike Piazza a 67th round pick taken as a favor, only to become perhaps the best hitting catcher ever (not to mention slowest runner).  Nick van Exel had an outstanding career as a second round draft pick in the NBA but honestly, every stud in the NBA without exception is a 1st rounder – show me a guy who went through what Hamilton went through and made the All Star game, show me a guy who was taken in the 39th round and is now starting at 1st base for one of the most recognizable franchises on the planet (LaHair).

Not only are the rags to riches stories more prevalent in baseball than any other sport but so are the resurgences.  If you don’t believe me, look at the two guys immediately behind Hamilton on the batting average list, one Mr. Jeter and one Mr. Ortiz.  There was a near consensus that at 37 and with 2,456 games under his belt Jeter’s game was tailing off.  He’d been under .300 for the past two seasons, only hit 6 HRs last year and 10 the previous year and his slugging percentage had been under .400 for the first time in his career, two years in a row.  All of a sudden, here he comes hitting .388 with 5 HRs already and playing like his old self.  This would be akin to Joe Montana coming to the Chiefs late in his career and actually doing something.  It just simply doesn’t happen.

All this to say, this is what makes baseball great  – there’s just seemingly so much more to love.  More story lines, more players and as of this week – more cards.  You thought that you had already tasted the rainbow of refractor colors until you saw this year’s 2012 Bowman Chrome, which now incorporates regular, blue, purple, orange, gold, red, super, bowman 1/1, silver ice, red ice and soon to come blue wave and red wave.  And you know what, the market loves them all and they are all selling like hot cakes on eBay and that’s kind of fun too.  All of this makes for a very long introduction to a Hot List packed with new cards and rejuvenated players.

 

1. Tony Cingrani 2011 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractors

Cingrani

Comments: So we’ll start with a guy you have never heard of to prove my point about “there’s so much more to love.”  One of those things that exists to love in baseball more-so than in any other sport is the full blown minor league system.  Heck, on FCB we spend about as much time talking about that as we do about the majors.  How many NBA D-Leaguers have you seen grow up to flourish in the league?  Exactly.  Have you heard of Tony Cingrani before?  No, he’s not Vince Papale’s cousin, he is a guy who has a sub 1 ERA in 6 starts this year for the Bakersfield Blaze.  Now, why do I mention the team?  Two things – if you know Bakersfield, you would know that Merle Haggard hales from there and that its in the CAL League launching pad, so the sub 1.00 ERA is even more spectacular.  Prior to this week Tony’s last Gold Refractor had sold for $8, then they sold for $40 and $55 this week.

2. Christian Friedrich 2008 Autos

Friedrich

Comments: Christian has been a fairly prominent prospect in the Rockies organization for some time but he’s always had one big strike against him, he’s a Rockies pitching prospect.  The Rockies and pitching prospects just haven’t historically had all that much success so in spite of his success at the minor league level in non-elevated ball parks he never garnered a ton of attention from the hobby perspective.  Christian’s first start in the majors was excellent though and it caused cards like a Prime Cuts that got no bids the prior week at $1.99 to get hit at a buy it now of $8 this week.

3. Josh Hamilton 1999 Topps Traded Autos

Hamilton

Comments: Ah, the aforementioned Mr. Hamilton.  Truth of the matter is that Josh was already having a spectacular season when he went straight Ed Delahanty on the Orioles this week. You might need to read more here, to catch that reference.  With this evening of insanity, Josh vaulted into the lead into all the Triple Crown categories and by some margin in the home run category.  Josh’s 1999 Topps Traded Autos had been creeping upwards for some time but this week pushed them over the edge.  Raw copies went from $150 to $300 and with a big season and a big offseason contract  to come, I think it is very possible that this card becomes the Miguel Cabrera type of it’s set.  Eat your heart out Carl Crawford, Josh owns this set.

4. Wil Myers 2010 Bowman Chrome Autos

Myers

Comments: Speaking of guys who are experts in the art of the long ball, Wil Myers is at this point clearly too good for AA.  I live in the KC area and I heard a conversation on the radio today regarding how long they could keep Wil Myers down in the minors.  If he keeps playing like this, I’d go for “not that long.”  Wil is another exciting young hitting prospect to add to the collection of Moustakas and Hosmer and he’s absolutely lighting it up this year.  Myers Chrome Autos were $10-$15 back when 2010 Bowman came on the market, overshadowed by some Strasburg and Harper guys…  $10 no more, last week they were $35 and this week on sold for $55 as Wil continues to make his case for top prospect in the minors.

5. Jon Jay 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft Parallels

Jay

Comments:  Jon Jay had a puppy, I think it’s name was Rover.  Rover was a good dog but shortly before this picture was taken for 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft Rover got hit and killed by a drunk man riding a  moped.  This is what I imagine happened because Jon’s face is….well, sour doesn’t even begin to describe it.  I have to imagine the picture might be happier now, perhaps Rover II has made his way into the Jay family and even if he hasn’t, being in the top NL leaders in the batting category usually does some emotions good.  Jon’s been around .400 the whole first month of the season and his Xfractors that were $10-$12 last week hit $20 this week.

6. Yu Darvish 2012 Bowman Chrome Autos

Yu

Comments: The Bowman w/Chrome brand used to be the dog of the Bowman brands.  Well, how about this, in a dog show it was the mutt compared to the greyhound and golden retriever like brands of Bowman Chrome and Bowman Chrome Draft.  This all seemed to change in 2010 when Stephen Strasburg mania brought us 2010 Bowman Chrome, 2011 Bowman Chrome brought us Bryce Harper and this year, the chase card can be summed up in a single letter, or two, it’s all about Yu.  Collectors are entering hobby shops humming the Paramore song, “All I wanted“…. was Yu.  So far Yu hasn’t disappointed this year with a 2.54 ERA, 4-1 record and nearly 10 K’s per 9 IP.  What this means in short is that Yu’s auto has gone for Strasburgian and Harper (ian?) type amounts with Blues routinely getting $650-$750 early in the release cycle.

7. Will Middlebrooks 2007 Elite Autos /409

Middlebrooks

Comments: A difference between Will Middlebrooks and Bryce Harper?  Alex, what is “who hit a grand slam in their first week in the big leagues?”  Why, that’s correct and since you wagered $2,000 on that daily double you’ve now taken the lead…ok, I perhaps took the Jeopardy analogy a touch far but you get the point.  Will has been on this list in previous weeks for going bonkers on the MiLB, now he makes it for lighting up the MLB for a grand slam in his first week up.  This pushed his already hot Elite Auto /409 up another notch from $70 to $100 this week.

8. Dylan Bundy 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto BGS 9.5

Bundy

Comments: What Bundy is doing might be even more impressive given that he seems to typically only have 3 innings to do it in.  Dylan seems to regularly fan more than half the batters he faces, no matter who he is facing.  This week it was 8 K’s in 3 innings and the cards continue to rise.  Chrome Autos in 9.5 slabs hit $135 this week up from $105 last week.

9. Bryan Lahair 2007 Bowman Sterling Refractor Autos

Lahair

Comments: Listen, the Cubs need bright spots, badly.  Bryan is turning out to be that bright spot and in typical fashion Cubs fans will latch onto any bright spot that shows itself during the year.  As I mentioned last week LaHair autos were the bane of many busters existence in 2007 Bowman Sterling and 2008 Bowman Draft.  However, Refractors hit a new high of $75 this week up from $55 last week.

10. Bryce Harper 2012 Bowman Chrome

Harper

Comments: What would this list be without a Strasburg or Harper sighting, honestly?  Believe it or not, Harpers in the veteran, or at least “green RC” category now yet the Topps printing presses are still glowing red hot from how fast they’ve been printing cards and autographs of him.  Exclusive contracts are for printing!  None the less in spite of the fact that he’s taken ever shape and form possible for a Bowman subject over the past couple of years it is still a good thing to pull Bryce Harper cards out of 2012 Bowman – they indeed are hot.