Tag Archives: Drew Brees

FCB Weekly Hot List December 30th 2011 Edition

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It is time for the last Hot List of 2011.  Typically around this time of year, material is difficult to come by, the NFL is just about to wind up, the NBA is in full swing, there’s a lack of cards for NCAA football and basketball and it is smack in the middle of baseball off-season.  More often that not, what’s on the Hot List is driven by on the court/field/floor performances.  People tend to get the most excitable about these things at the beginning of the season and therefore, all sports being in mid-season form means a little less Hot List fodder.

Ah, but you are saying, “Phil, I know where you are headed here, you had 3 Clippers on the list last week and…” and…you are right, the NBA regular season started, albeit a little late this week and as a result, guys who all of a sudden appear to be good, or at least much better than expected immediately starting catching collector’s and fan’s eyes alike.  This would be DeAndre Jordan last week and more to come this week and in the months ahead.

Another element of the Hot List that I particularly love is the suggestion thread this is where you the FCB reader and member tell me about things that I’d never know otherwise.  Some things will go un-noticed until you raise them to my attention and frankly, I think others read this suggestion thread and go scurrying off to commons boxes to see what they have of the named player.  If you get a chance, throw your suggestion into the Hot List hat and see what happens.  What typically happens is that I cull through the items listed in the thread, combine them with those in my head and then see what we’ve got.  Amazingly enough, I had enough in my head to round out the list this week but should there not be enough at some point in time, you’ll see the re-emergence of the cold list but not this week.

 

1. Norris Cole 2011-12 SP Authentic

Cole

Comments: Case in point, when Norris Cole was suggested I figured someone had jumbled up prospect names like Gerrit Cole and Daniel Norris but nay nay, they meant Norris Cole.  OH, that Norris Cole, the guy from Cleveland State, yeah!  Still not awake yet?  Yeah, me neither.  However, what you really need to know about Norris is that he was a previously unknown rookie who is now making it known that he’s going to score some points and get some minutes for the Miami Heat.  Yeah, that Miami Heat, the Heat that are going to win oh 6, 7, and 8 championships or more, yeah those guys.  All the heroes need sidekicks, whether it be Robin, Watson or others heroes, they need sidekicks and star players need role players.  Being a role player on a winning team can be lucrative, ask Derek Fisher.  Norris’ only card, the 2011-12 SP Authentic went for $.50 last week and some were over $5 this week.

2. Victor Cruz 2010 Playoff Contenders Autos

Cruz

Comments: And you thought that WRs hit their stride in their 3rd year in the league.  Victor’s here to tell you that the first year can be just fine (yes, fine is defined as 1358 yards in receiving (3rd in yards) and 78 receptions).  Not only is Victor doing that but he’s doing it for a New York market team.  This guy was an undrafted free agent and now he’s scoring 99 yard touchdowns on Sunday.  Victor has been on this list several different times as cards like his contenders autos have jumped up and down and this week he’s here again because his Contenders $25 last week and this week some hit $50 raw and a few 9.5s hit near $100.

3. Claude Giroux Young Guns RC

Giroux

Comments: Leading the NHL in points is no small thing.  Doing it for a team that most believe is laden with young stars (the Flyers) is also no small thing.  The additional thing with hockey guys is they often have that go to card – Young Guns – it isn’t hard to run down the list of recent Young Guns sales and see the pop for Claude.  His Young Guns were selling for $10 the previous week and are now selling for $24.  I have an article on Young Guns that will be going up within the next week and on the unique nature of this set – they are seriously one of a kind, which is exactly what Claude is trying to be leading the league in points this year.

4. Drew Brees 2001 Auto Rookies

Brees

Comments: Drew is already one of the most recognizable faces and quarterbacks in the NFL.  He’s had prolific season after prolific season, won a Super Bowl and is generally revered as an all around great guy.  All this being said to make the point that Drew’s cards already carry some nice sale prices and it would take something very significant to make the sale prices increase even further.  Well that something happened when Drew broke the single season yards passing record last week adding yet another notch to his belt.  UD Graded Autos in 9.5 for were up to $265 this week, in previous weeks they’d only been at or near $160.

5. Ty Lawson 2009-10 National Treasures Auto

Lawson

Comments: I watched Ty Lawson play college basketball and he struck me as a huge prospect.  The athleticism, the speed, the scoring.  However, his first two years in the league yielded average results at best but now that he’s the main guy with the Nuggets I think it is very possible we’ll see something quite different this season.  If the first two games are any indication, I might be right, Ty’s taking a lot more shots (13 per game) and scoring more points, 21 per game.  Ty’s National Treasures Patches are often bland such as the white one pictured above but that isn’t stopping collectors from grabbing them via BIN for $170, definitely a new high.

6. Jordan Eberle 2010-11 UD Young Guns

Eberle

Comments: While Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been getting a lot of press regarding young hockey phenoms, Eberle has been quietly piling up a tremendous season in the points category.  He has more points than his #1 line compatriots Taylor Hall and Mr. Nugent-Hopkins and now collectors are starting to take notice.  Young Guns were selling for $25 and are now into the mid-$30s, should Eberle continue to pile up these stats chances for larger increases totally exist.

7. Bubba Starling 2011 Bowman Sterling Autos

Starling

Comments: Name a prospect that coincides with the year 2011 – you’d have to say Bryce Harper right?  I mean he was the cover boy of nearly every Topps product and the big hit in nearly as many.  Bryce’s presence however is not big enough to overshadow Bubba who from a card sales perspective appears to be the guy to have.  Topps wound up insert his cards as redemptions into 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft but didn’t make the same mistake in Sterling.  Starling’s Sterling Autos are live and people are snapping them up.  Refractors are north of $65 and the rare stuff like the Purple Autos /10 are over $300.  Outside of Harper and Hosmer no one is really in the ballpark.
8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Certified Autos

Nugent

Comments: In number 6 on this list, I mentioned Nugent-Hopkins being on the same line as Eberle.  Nugent-Hopkins is an 18 year old phenom who is already on the NHL leaderboard as far as points scored.  Nugent-Hopkins previously made this list for non-auto’d non-GU’d  Young Guns that are selling for $75-$100 and now makes it for auto jerseys out of Certified that sell for very nearly $250.  Anything new released of this guy all season long is going to be scorching hot.
9. Cam Newton 2011 Rookie Cards

Newton

Comments: Speaking of young guys who put up absurd numbers, how’s Cam Newton for you?  He may eclipse 4000 yards passing in his last game of the year, already has 20 TDs passing,, 674 yards rushing, 14 rushing TDs and is pretty much any fantasy footballers dream come true.  Jamarcus Russell he is not, not at all and the Panthers have to feel like geniuses for drafting the #1 guy who some felt like they got stuck with.  Cam has invigorated that franchise and the card market has felt the same kind of adrenaline.  His most basic cards are selling for great money now, base chrome Topps Chromes for $8+, Chrome 9.5s for $30+, Chrome Ref 9.5s for over $50 and the numbers just get crazier from there.

10. Bryce Harper 2011 Bowman Sterling Autos and Parallels

Harper

Comments: So right now, if you eBay search “Bryce Harper” in the cards category you’ll find over 2,000 results which is pretty much insane given the fact that the guy has played a part of a season of AA baseball.  Topps signed Bryce to an exclusive contracts and has been getting their moneys worth to say the least.  This is what makes it even more amazing that Gold Refractors non-auto out of Bowman Sterling are still selling for over $300.  Bryce, is still THE  guy you want to pull something really nice when opening a product and still drives sales for wax sellers across the globe.

 

 

 

 

FCB Weekly Hot List – December 23rd 2011 Edition

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Last week I was feeling repetitive, this week, somewhat less so, a big reason for that being that the NBA preseason officially begun with everyone’s favorite, the Clippers!  Wait, what’s that, THE CLIPPERS?  Everyone’s favorite, I mean I always thought the Clippers were the castoffs in LA and the Lakers ran the show.  Well, they still do but you know what everyone loves?  Everyone loves potential and that’s what the Clippers have.  Ever since David Stern deemed them worthy of Chris Paul instead of the Lake Show things have gotten a little more exciting around the LAC and this week that culminated in DeAndre Jordan throwing down a massive dunk over Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in what was a visual representation in a split second of what Clippers fans are hoping for, for the years to come.

So it doesn’t take a rocket scientist, or even just a rocket man (I know you’re thinking the notes of the Elton John song in your head now) to determine that DeAndre is going to be fairly high on the list this week simply due to one thundrous dunk.  So that brings up the question, three sports dominate this Hot List – basketball, football and baseball and each of them have their big events – the dunk, the touchdown and the home run.  The question becomes which one of those individual events in isolation has the largest opportunity to impact card prices?  I’m not really hear to provide answers but I have plenty more questions but that one will do for now…so without further ado.

 

1. DeAndre Jordan 2008-09 Chrome Autos

Jordan

Comments: The 2008-09 basketball rookie class is already full of stars.  Think of the Chrome sets that year – Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Russell Westbrook and many other lesser stars.  Now a guy who was drafted as a “project” comes forth and with more dunks like he had on the Lakers his classification as a project will quickly disappear and if he stays healthy for 10 games then he will also be the healthiest young big man project to see L.A. in some time.  If we’ve learned one thing from the Blake Griffins and Derrick Roses it is that basketball cards can get extremely high priced, thus the $5 buy in it took to buy a DeAndre Chrome Auto this week vanished quite quickly and some got as high as $25.

2. Derrick Favors Rookie Autos

Favors

Comments: I had the privilege to attend the University of Illinois all the years that Deron Williams was the point guard there.  Deron Williams was good at U of I, just a few points away from a National Championship.  Deron Williams was even better with the Utah Jazz, ankle breaking crossovers, great passing and high percentage jump shooting, the simple point being that point guards like him don’t come along that often.  None the less, outside of the fact that he and Jerry the Sloan weren’t getting along, something had to bait the Jazz into trading him – Derrick Favors was a huge piece of that – Derrick Favors played one year of college basketball but as discussed earlier – everyone loves potential.  The fact that everyone loves potential makes people feel differently about Derrick Favors scoring 25 points in a preseason game than it would have if Andre Kirilenko scored those same 25 points.  As a result maybe the worst autograph in history ever pictured above move from $5 to $15 this week.

3. Aldon Smith 2011 Topps Platinum Autos

Smith

Comments: From a team perspective, it would be tough to come up with a bigger surprise this season than the 49ers.  The 49ers have a solid running game, a quarterback who isn’t giving the ball away (finally) and a championship defense.  Patrick Willis is as well known as any defensive player in the NFL but another player introduced himself last Monday night to the nation.  Aldon Smith the rookie from Missouri who twice chased down a hobbled Big Ben.  Aldon’s Platinum Autos were previously selling for $6 and then moved up to $15.

4. Doug Baldwin 2011 Panini Gold Standard Rookies

Baldwin

Comments: No, he’s not one of the brothers Baldwin he’s a rookie Seahawks receiver who is having a great season and pretty much has no cards to speak of.  That leaves Seahawks fans like many of the folks on the boards without many options.  When an option then makes itself available it becomes sought after pretty highly.  That means that when Baldwins gold standard cards released the /299s were selling for more than $20 and the /10s are now selling for over $100.

5. Drew Brees 2001 UD Graded Autos

Brees

Comments: Early in the season Tom Brady was having enormous games back to back and then Aaron Rodgers took center stage with large numbers and efficiency.  What went a little un-noticed was that Drew Brees was racking up stats to have another enormous season.  Drew Brees is a picture of consistency and this year he’s having an all-time NFL season in terms of passing yards.  He could pass the record with still a game to go and then put some distance in between himself and the prior record.  Not only that but the Saints are looking like a very tough out in the NFC even for the Packers.  It takes a lot to make an established player like Brees’ autograph rookies to move but Drew has done enough this season and cards like his 2001 UD Graded are starting to rise, one was hit at a buy it now for $249 this week while they previously sold for $160ish

6. 2009-10 Topps Chrome Blake Griffin

Griffin
Comments: The picture of the card above makes me think two things.  #1 – Blake is another reason that Clippers fans are excited this season but sadly, #2 – no more Topps chrome basketball.  Griffin’s cards have made this list several times before as he had an unreal “rookie” season last year.  With Chris Paul throwing him alley oops this year its probably reasonable to expect more of the same this year.  In fact, it’s clear that collectors are already expecting this to happen as the cards rose from $80 to $120 this week and seem to be ascending before Griffin gets off the ground for one of his thunderous slams.

7. 2011 Topps Chrome Football Singles

Newton

Comments: I think I smell a nomination for product of the year, don’t you?  Across sports?  Yeah, probably so.  Topps Chrome provides all sorts of value on the low-end side as even simple Refractors of guys like Newton, Dalton and others sell very well.  Then there’s the autos yep, tons of goodness there too, a 9.5 of the Newton above – $300+ and the high-end stuff is simply insane.  Red Autos /5 of guys like Newton, Dalton, Green, Murray and others that sell for over $1k.  This has caused wax to go insane and meanwhile singles continue to light up eBay, the Newton above is just one example.
8. Chris Paul 2005-06 Rookie Autos

Paul

Comments: Who has been kicked around by the NBA brass more than Chris Paul?  The poor guy booked a flight for L.A., cancelled it, and then…rebooked!  Just a different team.  Clippers fans have perhaps never been more confident and although Griffin and Jordan may get a lot of the highlights it is guys like Paul that truly makes teams go.  Paul’s time in the headlines has brought a ton of new interest to his 2005-06 rookie autos and some 9.5 SPx’s are now selling for near $300.
9. 2011 Bowman Sterling Marshawn Lynch Autos

Lynch

Comments: It seems to be rookie running backs who hit their stride as quickly as anyone in the league and quarterbacks who really take some time to develop.  Lynch is a little rarer in that case in that he’s having by far his best season 4 years into his career and with a whole new team.  There were some uhh legal issues while he was with the Bills and it seems that the Seahawks gave him a new lease on life and things really took off after his beast mode run last year in the playoffs.  2011 Sterling brings a nice looking auto in a Seahawks uniform and so far they are selling very nicely.

10. Ryan Mathews 2010 Playoff Contenders Autos

Mathews

Comments: I’m a big Chargers fan and was so excited for Mathews to renew the Chargers running game last season.  That excitement was quickly fumbled away by Mathews who was most often seen chasing down loose balls and limping off the field.  However, although there are still a few too many fumbles the production has really ramped up for Mathews this season and card prices are finally starting to reflect it.  Contenders 9.5s popped for $80 this week and some raw cards for $35.

 

 

 

 

Razor Rookie Retro Analysis pt. 1

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Retro

Love it or hate it, Razor Rookie Retro (RRR) was one of the most discussed releases on FCB over the past 6 months.

I’ve been tracking many of the sales in a thread in the baseball forum.

As a result of the tracker, I’ve been able to collect a significant amount of sales data. The first piece that I want to look at is the average return from the repurchased rookie card you receive in each pack. We will look at the Prismatics and Base Autos in a later article.

What the average return by box and by case would be was one of the big questions leading up to the release of this product. Lots of thoughts related to this were discussed but I think the most relevant one is Brian Gray’s estimate of 70%+. Two things are unique here – #1 – 70% would represent a return higher than the average high end box; #2 – it is really easy to identify winners and losers with just a cursory glance. Not only is there just one significant card per pack but the cards and their market values are already familiar as most of them have been on the market for years.  These things, combined with a large price tag bring greatly increased scrutiny….and here comes some more.

My sample included 188 completed sales, spanning all sports and all decades.  I was not selective in my sampling, I simply listed and tracked what I could find on eBay and identify as a card from RRR.  I believe some of the largest hits (Crosby Cup Rookie) and some of the worst hits (Drew Brees UD Graded) were included.  How did Joe Q. RRR Breaker do you ask?  Not too well I’m afraid.

The average sale was $156, or 65% of the $240 retail box price.  However, due to several large sales, the average is very skewed and I think the median is a better metric to use here, the median sale was $93, or just 39% of the $240 retail price-tag.  The best card I saw was a Sidney Crosby the Cup Auto Rookie Patch /99 BGS 8.5 which sold for $5.8K and the worst sale was the Drew Brees UD Graded BGS 9.5 for $26.

Here’s a little more granularity on how the sales broke down:

Sale Price # of Cards Percent
< $50 21 11%
$50 – $100 82 44%
$100-$200 63 34%
$200-$300 13 7%
$300-$500 3 2%
$500-$1000 4 2%
$1000-$5000 1 1%
$5000+ 1 1%

In total, there were only12 sales (6.6% of total) above $240, the retail price for a box.

Two ideas come to mind in regards to the lower than expected sales.

#1 – buying the quantity of product that Razor did to create this product probably drove prices up a little bit.  To buy that much, even over a long period of time would mean buying nearly every example that came along and with that, paying higher, maybe 10%-20% higher.

#2 – On the flipside of #1, the market being flooded with quality rookie slabs starting at $.99 auction, probably drove prices down somewhat.  It is conceivable that with fixed price listings and some better timing, sellers could have realized maybe 10%-20% more on their cards.

That being said, realizing 40%-60% of your cost from a high-end wax bust is by no means unusual and probably quite normal.  Buyers knew what they were in for, as do lottery ticket buyers.  And that doesn’t stop the busters or the scratchers.

More thoughts on this product soon!