So if I asked you what one common thread best links all the cards you see appear here in the Hot List together, what would it be?  Autographs – nah, Patches?  Probably not.  Chrome cards?  Nope.  Rookies.  90% of the cards that appear here are rookie cards and why is that?  Well, simply put in today’s card industry you can make more of anything (if you don’t believe me then check how many Rogers Hornsby bat cards are on eBay these days…the man must have went through one a day) regardless of what it is – people can sign more, you can cut up more jerseys, bats and balls.  You can print a 1/1 card in 100 different products but you cannot make rookie cards once the product run for that year is finished (and yes, that’s debatable)  and thus, even if there are a lot – there is a known, finite supply once the products for that year is finished.

I believe it is this reason that cause rookie cards to make the biggest moves when a player gets hot.  Sure, other cards might pick up steam too, whether it be rare autos, or cool patches but it is the known, limited supply that make rookie cards THE card to have when a player gets hot and thus THE card that appears on this list most often.  That also brings up another interesting point about rookie cards, depending on the player and sport there can be many or just a few.  As an example, Isaac Redman a backup running back for the Steelers has literally one rookie card, a Panini Certified /999 that sells for $35.  Isaace Redman has gotten the most national attention for being the guy named as a fill-in when Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt, not for all his on the field accomplishments and the card still sells for $35 because it is his only one.  Conversely, Jason Pierre Paul who in every way has achieved more success on the NFL level, has a Panini Certified /999 that sells for a couple bucks, simply because he has other, much better options.  What this really ought to tell you is that even within the rookie card sub-segment of the hobby there are tons of additional factors that can influence the price of a card and the lesson to be learned is that if you have a player you really believe in, who only has one card – you should buy that like crazy to either a. make money when he goes crazy or b. get that card of the player you love for a reasonable price prior to it going bonkers….and…

1. Justin Smith 2001 Contenders Auto

Comments: All that being said, I’m going to bet not a lot of you were stockpiling Justin Smith autos (second Missouri D-Lineman named Smith to make this list in the past couple weeks) but maybe you should have been.  Justin has quite a few 2001 issues but in the case where there are multiple autographs available, you can pretty much bet that in football Playoff Contenders is going to rule the day.  So when a player leaps into the spotlight like Smith did last Saturday when the 49ers beat the Saints, you can pretty much look for the Playoff Contenders auto to make a big jump and in Justin’s case it certainly did.  These autographs were selling for $7 previously and one ended on Thursday night for $21, triple the price.  If Justin continues to bull rush his way to the Super Bowl it isn’t going to stop here, there is a market for high-end defensive players Playoff Contenders Autos, see Reed, Ed and Peppers, Julius and more….

2. Alex Smith 2005 Contenders Auto

Comments:  Speaking of the 49ers, they have this #1 pick that has been in and out of the starting job for years and frankly, up until now still hasn’t lived up to expectations – because after all, expectations are awfully high of a #1 pick.  However, this season it has become apparent, if you give him a chance Alex Smith can manage a game, not turn the ball over and make some big plays at the right time that will give the team a chance to win.  Listen, Trent Dilfer won the Super Bowl and Big Ben won one when he wasn’t throwing the ball 50 times a game.  That strategy has worked before and apparently it still may, as evidenced by Smith beating Brees.  Smith’s cards have gotten a lot more attention this season as the Niners have flourished under their new coach but this week was when they really went gangbusters – Contenders Autos moved from $70 to $145.

3. Eli Manning 2004 Topps Chrome Rookies

Comments: Speaking of former #1 picks who have high expectations, Eli Manning.  The guy has won as many Superbowls as his much more renowned brother and is somehow often viewed with the “eh, he’s ok” opinion.  Well he’s more than ok and he knows when to bring it, Eli seems to be at his best when the games the biggest and he and the Giants went out and put a whooping on one of the golden boys of this years NFL season, Aaron Rodgers.  Eli’s cards were not cheap to begin with but they still popped, Chromes from 2004 went from $15 to $30 – multiple SuperBowl winners are not taken lightly.

4. Michael Pineda 2011 Rookie Autos

Comments:   Like #3 on this list, owners of Michael Pineda cards have learned that in spite of America’s progression westward from the 1800s onward, from a hobby perspective, New York is still the place to be.  In what could be viewed as a prospect blockbuster trade Michael was exchanged for Jesus Montero.  Both catcher and pitcher are highly thought of in the baseball community, as well as the card community, however, owners of Pineda cards are much more excited about him being a Yankee than owners of Montero cards are excited about him being a Mariner.  Pineda has nasty stuff and it will be on display in the Big Apple this season.  Pineda has a bunch of 2011 Autos and a 2009 Bowman Chrome and Sterling.  The 2011 Autos doubled upon the news that Michael was a Yankee and if he’s lights out this season $30 for a Bowman Sterling Auto will not be where they stop.

5. Aaron Hernandez 2010 Playoff Contenders Auto

Comments: Back to the football playoffs we go.  Rob Gronkowski has been the Patriots tight end getting all the attention this season, what with the 180 yards and 3 touchdown catches and all.  However, in the game last week versus the Fighting Tebows Aaron Hernandez tooks some handoffs and wound up gaining over 60 yards on the ground??!!?? Did you read that box score right?  Indeed you did.  This is what the Patriots do – Aaron Hernandez at RB, sure.  Troy Brown at DE, no problem.  Mike Vrabel at FB, yep.  Any team can run gimmicks like this but the Patriots do it and in the process of doing so dominate other playoffs team.  It probably isn’t possible for the Tebow train to come to a more screeching halt (with John Elway in the box yelling “SEE!!! I told you”) but screech to a halt it did.  Aaron’s Contenders autos were a lot cheaper earlier in the week than they are now as they doubled in price after his performance on Saturday evening.

6. Vernon Davis SP Authentic Auto Patches

Comments: I get it, Vernon Davis is good, he’s a physical freak of a man who is huge in stature yet can beat smaller men in foot races but that still leaves absolutely no excuse for the Saints, who somehow managed to allow Davis to get behind them twice to make two of the larger plays of the game.  I mean, let me be clear, I hate prevent defense but there really is a time for it..I digress.  Vernon has been an expected breakout player for many years and like other Niners is breaking out this year.  His SP Authentic Autos are fetching upwards of $60 now, which is more than double what they were getting last week.

7. Osi Umenyiora 2003 Bowmans Best Auto

Comments: Although Osi was limited by injury this year, his presence is being felt in the playoffs and as a result, yes, people are hunting down his rookie autos.  Remember the point I made earlier about Isaac Redman who only has one rookie card?  Well, Osi only has one rookie auto, Bowmans Best.  Bowmans Best isn’t exactly synonymous with “renowned football brand” but when its the only option available people pursue it. Osi’s 2003 Bowmans Best popped from $30 to $60 this week.

8. Rob Gronkowski 2010 Exquisite Auto /120

Comments: Tell me a non quarterback who has dominated more games this season than Rob Gronkowski.  Beast mode and man child only begin to describe it and yes, he was on a team with the NFL’s leading receiver (Wes Welker) this season too!  Well, the dominance continues into the playoffs and the Broncos defense that carried them into the playoffs simply had no answer for Rob.  Rob’s Exquisite Autos have been on this list before and in spite of the fact that it pictures him in an Arizona uniform (by licensing less card issues the MLB and NFL have seemingly made licensing more irrelevant in my mind) it has again hit a new high at over $180.  I can only wish I’d stocked up on them several months ago, I was busy buying Jermaine Gresham, D’OH!

9. Anthony Rendon 2011 Leaf Autos

Comments:   Each year there are players in the draft class that don’t have autographs in the Bowman Chrome Draft issue for that year.  Typically all prospectors look at these guys and nod in unison “yep, they are saving them for some Chrome release next year.”  The next thought that should enter the minds of prospectors is “what autograph issues will they have this year?”  In the case of highly touted third base prospect Anthony Rendon he’s got a load of Leaf autos -both in Metal and in Valiant.  As these products have already been busted en masse and sold off, Anthony’s rare Leaf autos are starting to pick up a lot of steam.   His Purple Metal Autos moved from $60 to $95 this week as collectors try to pick up some of his scarce first year issues.

10. 2010 Totally Certified Basketball Parallels

Comments:  Every once in a while, we feature on the Hot List a set that has just gotten absurdly hot as collectors have latched onto a particular design or set.  Precious Metals Basketball comes to mind, 1993 Finest Refractors (although far more dated) also comes to mind.  These sets become somewhat iconic in a short matter of time (Donruss Preferred baseball with actual precious metals) and the prices, even for sub-par players (from the hobby perspective of course!) like Kyle Lowry become insane – the last one sold well over $100.  It is at this time that I should note that in basketball, these absurd prices are far more common than other sports.  If you don’t believe me, do an eBay search on Michael Jordan completed listings, refine your search to cards and look at the largest sales.  Are they autos?  Nope.  Patches?  Nope.  90s inserts?  Negative.  They are iconic sets, often 90s inserts that people are paying huge money for and it seems that this happens more often in basketball.  So it is with Certified, is this the beginning of a dynasty?

A couple of other notes:

• Issuing the first Andrew Luck cards in Prismatic form.  Awesome thing.  Mis-spelling Andrew – not so awesome thing.  Knowing about it due to FCB – awesome thing.  Andrew Luck autographs in the upcoming Army product, even more awesome thing.
• Once the NFL season ends and the only pro sports going on are hockey and basketball – well yeah, that’s going to suck because aside from the Kyrie Irving rookie cards that are the “Made in someone’s basement” brand, we still don’t have any rookie cards this year!
• While I was in my “pay no attention to the NBA during lockout” phase, I apparently missed the fact that Ron Artest had changed his name to Metta World Peace.  If Chad Ochocinco set the bar for stupidity, the player formerly known as Ron Artest just leaped over that bar blindfolded with both hands behind his back and and set a bar so high on the stupidity scale that no one is going to even try and attempt that high jump for some time.  Some rookie cards lose value because people change teams, others are worth nothing cause the players are just bad and some are worth zip cause the players themselves are total idiots.