FCB Weekly Hot List – June 8th 2012 Edition

FCB and basketball aren’t exactly synonymous, it is no secret that in terms of our sports forums, the baseball flavor is by far the best, football a distant second and everything else, basketball included, is a very distant third – it would be like getting lapped in the 400 (yeah, think about it).  The interesting thing about this is that we have plenty of people who pay attention to basketball but posting in the forum doesn’t just seem to be on the priority list.

But anyway, forum traffic is not the point.  The lack of basketball forum traffic didn’t stop me from adding some commentary to the Hot List last week around the NBA playoff conference finals.  At that time the Spurs and the Heat looked like near shoo-ins to get to the Finals.  The Celtics were too old and that car was out of gas, the Thunder still just a bit too young and were going to get beat by a better “team.”  The term 180 degree turn understates what happened between then and now.  The Celtics legs rejuvenated, the Thunder started playing like a veteran and made some fantastic adjustments, the Heat became mortal and the Spurs seemingly hit the end of the road.  Oh and in other news, I’m fairly certain that Stuart Scott proposed to Kevin Durant, or, at the very least he has a ring purchased.

What all this did  is remind me of the power of basketball cards.  There were more NBA player nominations for the Hot List this week then there had been in some time.  Here’s the thing about basketball cards, they seemingly have no ceiling.  Not only does a ceiling not seem to exist but the prices get crazy faster than almost any other sport.  Several years ago when Durant was really coming into his own, his Topps Chrome 9.5s hit near $75.  Often times, it is very hard to replicate an initial spike, for instance Derrick Rose no matter how good his play will have trouble replicating prices from his MVP year.  However, Durant is back and so are Chrome 9.5s at $75 each.  Topps, in their typical crank the presses fashion decided that refractors from Durants rookie year should be numbered /1499.  You might be sitting there saying, /1499, .that sounds like a print run from the mid 90s and you would be right.

It was at this time, the writer of the Hot List took the opportunity to make some strategic investments in Topps Chrome Refractors, not only was I pulled in by the limited print run but the opportunity to prospect Mike Conley and Sean Williams (yes the guy who sits on the Celtics bench) was just too much for me.  What about Durant you say?  Eh, his scouting combine numbers weren’t the best and I wasn’t sure a guy as skinny as him could thrive in the NBA…I know at this point my knowledge is shining through….crystal ball, I do not have.

In spite of all my knowledge and the horrendous print run these Refractors, they now sell in 9.5 form (that is, with a Durant picture on the front)  for near $230, yes, a Refractor /1499…this is the no ceiling aspect of it.  If you don’t believe me, eBay 199* Michael Jordan and sort from highest to lowest…that is some real money.

All this is to say that although basketball cards don’t get much play on FCB at times the dollars that roll out on eBay for the best cards are simply insane.  And here you thought I was going to talk about the baseball draft.

 

1. Jarrod Parker 2008 Bowman Chrome Autos

Parker

Comments: With all that said, lets start with a baseball player.  You can insert my rant here about Bowman cutting the legs out from it’s base sets with autographs in subsequent sets right now.  Parker is the epitome of that and 2008 Bowman Chrome, the card featured above was really the first time that the concept was introduced en masse.  Parker had a bit of a long road to the majors but ever since he’s made it he seems to be adapting rather nicely and took a no hitter late into the game earlier this week.  This caused his 2008 Chrome Autos to move from the $7 range up to near $20.

2. Carlos Correa 2011 Perfect Game Topps Cards

Correa

Comments: Quack Quack!  Oh, right, these are no longer AFLAC cards and I’m not in the Mighty Ducks either.  Correa was a bit of a surprise as a number one pick and that kind of thing makes for a nice pops in card values.  Here’s another unique thing about Correa, contrary to many of the other draft picks he doesn’t already have a million autos thanks to Topps USA (former…) contract.  His Perfect Game cards moved from the $30 range up to near $80 before settling back down at $60ish.

3. Mike Olt 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor Autos

Olt

Comments: If there were VH1 shows titled “I love June 2012″ just like “I love the ’80s”, Mike Olt would be the guy being interviewed talking about everything he liked.  The guy had 3 2 HR games in a row earlier this week and this clearly got the prospecting world’s attention.  That means 18 HRs for the year for Olt and an OPS of 1.056.  Olt’s cards were pretty cheap, up until this week when Refractors bounced from $20 up to $35.

 

4. Trevor Story 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Story

Comments: This is the Story of a girl, who hit home runs and wowed the whole world.  I’m going to spare you at that because my parodies get no better.  Like Tim Wheeler before him, Trevor is a Rockies prospect who is exceeding expectations by hitting for lots of power, this has of course translated to increased interest in his Chrome Autos which moved from $7-$10 to near $15 this week.

5. Sean Doolittle USA Autos

Doolittle

Comments: The second 2007 Bowman Draft subject on this list (Parker being the first) – Sean’s cards initially sold well a few years back because he hit over 20 home runs as a first basemen.  However, his ML debut came as a pitcher and it happened less than a year after he had converted to the position.  Pitcher to shortstop, OF or third basemen isn’t all that unusual but it is pretty rare you hear about first basemen making the move.  Sean did just that and in fact, struck out the side in his first big league inning.  His USA autos started having BINs hit after MONTHS of no activity.

6. Albert Almora 2010 Chrome Autos

Almora

Comments: Like it, love it or hate it (wouldn’t that be hilarious if those were the sizes available at Coldstone Creamery?) Chrome Autos are the standard for rookies.  Up until a few years ago (and starting again soon) it was unthinkable for a draftee to have a Chrome Auto.  However, many of this year’s draftees did and Albert is representative of this phenomenon.  What this results in is a lot of movement (Albert included) in Chrome USA autos around draft time.

7. Carlos Gonzalez 2008 SPx Auto Rookies

Gonzalez

Comments: These days, it seems like nearly every notable prospect has a Chrome/Sterling, or some other autograph in their rookie year.  That hasn’t always been the case and Carlos Gonzalez is representative of such a time.  Carlos has a 2005 Draft and 2005 Topps Chrome card as a D-Back but 2008 SPx was one of his first autos because of his big league debut in an A’s uniform.  The A’s traded Carlos to the Rockies where he has flourished and is doing so again this year, Carlos is near the top of the NL leaderboard in BA, HR and RBI and his 2008 SPx Autos have moved up about 30% this week as a result.

8. James Harden 2009-10 Exquisite Auto RC

Harden

Comments: All basketball collectors are currently shedding a little tear as the James Harden picture brings to mind the fact that this was the last year that Exquisite was produced in the NBA world, for shame.  Harden was another guy I was high on out of college (along with Sean Williams and Mike Conley) and I evened owned a few of these Exquisite rookies one time…but perhaps I sold them a little too early.  With the Thunders success and Harden being a big part of that these moved back towards the $200 mark this week.

9. Gerrit Cole 2012 Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor Autos

Cole

Comments: One of the phenomenons that happens in the prospect sector of the baseball card hobby, is that irregardless of the overall rankings of any particular draft, a few autographs will sell for over $50, a few for $30-$50, more for $20-$30 and a good deal for under $20.  2011 was considered to be a fantastic draft year and 2012, yeah, not so much.  It’s conceivable that 2011′s weak draft caused some to step back and decide that Gerrit Cole was a good value at current prices and that’s why the prices rose from $100 to $130.  It’s also conceivable that prospectors loved the fact that he has a 2.53 ERA currently and that’s why values rose, take your pick but rise they did.

10. Kevin Durant 2007-08 Topps Chrome Refractors

Durant

Comments: Go ahead and re-read the intro for more on this one.  The lesson is that if you have someone who think is going to be a huge NBA star be it Rose, Westbrook, Griffin or Durant buy their Topps Chrome and parallels en masse.  Oh, wait, that can’t happen cause Topps Chrome doesn’t exist anymore for the NBA, sigh.

Still Making That??!!??: It seems that I have the conversation about once a month, “Oh, I have a ton of baseball cards sitting in my garage.”  Great!  That’s awesome, they are worth nothing.  But they still make Topps Series I and II?  Yes, they do and there’s more value than ever, a Bryce Harper SSP sold for over $300 earlier this week.

Still the King: There is Michael Jordan and there’s everybody else.  His sales continue to be insane.

A pictures is worth??: Sean Williams got a couple mentions in the commentary of the Hot List today, that will be the first and last time that happens.  A picture is worth a thousand words?  Give me a convincing reason why anyone in their right mind would prospect a guy with that mug shot.  Yes, that’s self-indicting.

Uncle Drew: If you haven’t watched the Kyrie Irving video of him playing “Uncle Drew” yet, then you are missing out.

Speaking of Kyrie Irving:  Still, the only rookie card

FCB Weekly Hot List – June 1st 2012 Edition

If you are like me in regards to dates and times, things have a tendency to creep up on you.  For instance, right now I may not fully realize that it is 2012, the last 3 bands on my playlist have been Sunny Day Real Estate, STP and Creed.  It is also a bit stunning that this Hot List, is the first one for June, yes June my friends.  2 months of the MLB season have passed us by, the NBA and NHL playoffs keep going and going and going, I’m seeing ever more instances of NFL Live on ESPN and somewhere in a basement full of props, Lee Corso is picking out his head gear for the upcoming college football season while Gilmore stands behind him and yells “ROLL TIDE.”

One common theme among all the major sports currently going seems to be that “old” isn’t so bad after all.  Your AL batting average and Hot List nominee, Paul Konerko (1994 Topps Traded) is 36, Neanderthalish by some standards.  Your NL homerun leader is Carlos Beltran (1995 Topps Traded) and he’s 35 and drove a car similar to the Flinstones when he turned 16.  Martin Brodeur starred in the NHL playoffs as a goalie at 40, Tim Duncan at 36 looks unbeatable with the Spurs, Thursday night aside.  The Celtics are practically a geriatric team and there they are in the Eastern Conference finals (likely without a prayer).  Manny Ramirez’s 40th is tomorrow and he may return to the big leagues (if he can ever get a hit in AAA), there is the well documented story of Jamie Moyer getting a win and a hit at 49.  People will talk obsessively about Peyton Manning’s age prior to his first game this year and so on and so on.

What’s really interesting from a cultural perspective is that human beings are generally doing more than ever at the ages of 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80.  It’s remarkable and a testament to modern medicine, health knowledge and a host of other things.  At the same time we are probably more obsessed about age as it relates to sports than ever.  Hours are spent discussing Brandon Weeden the 28 year old octogenarian and his proper place in the draft.  Running backs are used goods at 27, we start hearing about prospects in all sports at the age of 16 and by the time they hit 30, they are old news.  Heck, Kobe Bryant has been in the press for seemingly two decades, isn’t he retired by now?

All this to say, outlets like this Hot List often get very youth centered, simply because it is the youth’s cards who make the most dramatic moves the most often and that’s what gets you on this list.  However, it was a lot of fun to see nominations this week that included guys like Paul Konerko.  I mean seriously, who really thought the 1994 Topps Traded set was in play, be honest now.

All that said, this week’s Hot List is a fun mix of very young guys and some others that you may not have seen for a while.

 

1. Melky Cabrera 2005 Rookie Autos

Cabrera

Comments: If you visit any baseball leader board page, you’ll see an M. Cabrera at the top of the batting average list, no surprise there, with Prince hitting behind him in Detroit, we expected that might happen.  Wait a second, it’s the NL list, it’s the Melk Man!  Melky sounds like some sort of candy bar that you could buy for $7.50 at any big league ball game.  Melky had several successful years with the Yankees and then spent a little time moving around before landing with the Giants this year.  Suffice to say no one expect him to be leading the league in avearge two months in and his 2005 rookie autos are moving again.  The Topps Finest Xfractor /150 pictured above sold for $15 last week and $56 this week.

2. Chris Sale 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

Sale

Comments: Chris Sale was called up to the big leagues as a reliever, as hard throwers often are.  However, names like Joba Chamberlain come to mind and often this spells death (of a Salesman?) for said players cards.  Chris seems to be liking the conversion from reliever to starter though and recently had a 15K game.  This honestly started pushing back 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft cards back to where they were around release, Refractors are now over $30 after selling for more like $10 last week.

3. Stephen Pryor 2010 Elite Autos

Pryor

Comments: Speaking of hard throwing guys likely to be promoted to the big leagues as relievers.  Stephen Pryor is likely in line for a promotion to the big leagues and possibly as the Mariners closer.  It is fairly rare that we see relievers getting hobby love, however, when your cards sell for diddly last week, they don’t exactly have to sell for $100 this week to make the list.  Pryor is the 845,689,234th example of why people love and hate Elite Auto sets.  They include everyone – therefore when guys like Pryor surface, people love them.  However, they include everyone and therefore when people open Elite sets and pull guys like Pryor as their auto hit, they say unkind words on youtube.  Pryor’s autos are selling for $12 now, markedly up from the 4 George Washingtons they would have ran you last week.

 

4. Andrelton Simmons 2012 Bowman Chrome Autos

Simmons
Comments: I have gone on at some length over the years about the eradication of anything worthwhile within Bowman Chrome base sets due to the almighty power of the Chrome Auto.  I found this out first hand when I opened 20 cases of 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft.  One of the few bright spots however was Andrelton Simmons who only had a base card.  However, lo and behold 2012 Bowman Chrome arrived on the scene and tomorrow, Andrelton is set to arrive on the scene in Atlanta.  The call up is happening and that’s right, the autographs start popping and the guys who patiently held for 1.5 years, well you’ll get nothing and like it.  Even if you do put “must have” in the title.  Autos were selling for $6 last week and are at $16 this week.

5. Domingo Santana 2011 Bowman Autos

Santana

Comments: Due to some large fans and prospectors on our boards, Phillies prospects have historically gotten as much play on FCB as any other team.  So, more people will recognize Domingo Santana’s name in FCB land than if you walked up to a random person on the street and asked them “who is Domingo Santana?”  Yes, this is your opportunity to create your own version of “jaywalking” prospect style.  That being said, up until recently aside from being a Phillies prospect (until he was traded to the Astros) Domingo hadn’t done much to get noticed by the prospecting community.  This year, Domingo in High-A is putting together a very solid season for a 19 year old and as a result the Bowman Autos that sold for $5 last week are selling for $12 this week.

6. Tony Parker 2001-02 Topps Chrome

Parker

Comments: Honestly, do more people know Tony Parker because of his connection to Eva Longoria or because he’s a darn good basketball player?  Answer that question if you will but prepare to be disappointed in society for some time after coming to your conclusions.  The Spurs have had an incredible year and one of the questions that kept popping into my mind after seeing them win game after game was “who do they have?”  The Thunder have Durant & Westbrook, the Lakers have Kobe, the Heat have Dwayne and Lebron, the Celtics have the aforementioned nursing home team and Rondo and the Spurs have??? Come again?  Some French guy, an Argentinian and an old center from Wake Forest, oh ok, they’re the favorites right?  Parker has been particularly stellar during the Spurs 20 game win streak and his 2001-02 rookie cards, including the Topps Chrome have certainly been the targets of more eBay searches here recently.  Base Chromes went from $5 to $10 this week.

7. Jordan Pacheco 2010 Bowman Platinum Autos

Pacheco

Comments: Jordan Pacheco is one of those guys who just stays under the radar.  26 year old getting his first real taste of the big leagues.  However, he’s been hot recently, hitting in 12 of his last 13 games and some of those hits rather timely too.  As with Pryor above, it doesn’t take an auto a lot to move of the $4 mark and Pacheco’s platinums certainly did that moving up to $8 this week.

8. Rajan Rondo 2005-06 Topps Finest Refractor Autos

Rondo

Comments: Forget all the other stars, last night Rajan Rondo had the best game of the playoffs trying to will the Celtics to victory and amazingly enough, it still fell short.  In spite of all the publicity around him and his team Rondo’s rookie autos have remained remarkably affordable, although that may change with a few more games like last night.  Rondo’s Finest Autos moved from $30 to $56 on the strength of his 44 point performance.

9. Travis D’Arnaud 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos

D'Arnaud

Comments: Speaking of patience in prospecting, the 9th entry on the Hot List hales from the Bush presidency era.  Travis’ ascent through the minors has not been a quick one but his performance and accolades garnered at every level certainly have been quite high.  This year, in his final stop in the minors at triple A his OPS is .988 through 45 games.  It’s just a matter of time before Travis makes an appearance in the bigs and I can guarantee you that these refractors won’t be available for $15 like they were last week, nor $27 like they were this week when that happens.

10. 2009 Bowman Chrome Dayan Viciedo Autos

Viciedo

Comments: Speaking of league leaders, although Dayan is still very young.  You will find him both at the top of the AL Home Run list and at the back of the prospect stack, his stuff is a couple years old. Old cards aside, Dayan is hitting big time in the big leagues and his chrome autos moved from $20 to $30 this week as a result of his hot bat.

Other Notes:

Prospecting Success Stories:  Two nominees for this weeks Hot List, that didn’t make it, have been here many times before due to their success in the minors.  Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton are prime examples of when patience pays off.  Mike Trout Refractor Autos from 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft could be had all day long for $30 at release, now 9.5s sell for $300.  Stanton Refractors could be had for $50 and now sell for $200+  It’s truly fun to watch these ascend through the minors and then have this kind of success in the big leagues.

Oldies but Goodies:  To my earlier comments, the Topps Traded sets are alive again due to the performances of Beltran and Konerko.  Whose next?  Jason Giambi?  Jeff Bagwell?  Nomar Garciaparra?

The Good and the not so good:  Two recently released Topps products are Bowman Signature and Topps Archives.  Although the amount of dead wood from an autograph perspective in the archives project is enough to fuel any fire for years, people love the design.  Seeing all of the Topps designs from 20 years ago makes one smile and of course the autograph doesn’t hurt either.  On the flipside, Bowman Signature Football is one of the first to include a team name on the rookie card…outside of doing this the rookies are cloaked in these strange pastel type colored uniforms that look like they are made out of clay.  Until an NFL uni can at least be airbrushed on, I for one vote for the college uniform.

Random Fact:  Yu Darvish is your A.L. leader in wins but his WHIP doesn’t even sniff the top 50 for starters in the MLB.

 

FCB Weekly Hotlist – April 15th 2011 Edition

FCB Weekly Hot List

1. Tim Collins 2009 Bowman Chrome Rookies

Collins

Comments: An ordinary name, an ordinary looking guy, a less than ordinary higher and an extraordinary story.  Read more here and you’ll find out why Tim occupies the number one spot on the list this week.  Sure, he’s just a reliever but he’s 5’6″ and throws 94…as a result, his Xfractors popped from $8 to $31 this week and J.P. Riccardi has to feel like he was right when he paid $100,000 for Tim to sign.

Continue reading